Harsh weather may threaten 2016 harvest
Agricultural activities in 2016 have been predicted to experience significant decline following disclosures by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) that most parts of the country will experience less than normal volume, delayed, and early cessation of rainfall across most parts of the country compared to previous years.
The threat of rainfalls this year is likely to reduce the contribution of the sector to the country’s GDP by playing a leading role in the diversification process.
Experts who spoke with BusinessDay have attributed these projections to increased temperature conditions attributed to climate change and which is now affecting the agriculture cycle, while on the other hand, irrigation farming has been advocated in order to cushion the effects of inadequate rainfall.
“This is a sign of climate change. The dryness of the weather currently will affect the quality of crops and the pricing,” said Desmond Majekodunmi, an environmentalist.
“Most farmers don’t have alternatives apart from rainfall,” he added.
According to NIMET, the rainfall pattern for 2016 may pose a great risk to farmers in the areas that will be most affected, urging concerned government ministries to carefully manage the situation.
“Our key message today is that most parts of Nigeria are likely to experience delayed onset, early cessation and less-than-normal rainfall amounts as well as dry spells. These are risk factors for farmers in the affected areas and must be carefully managed,” said Anthony Anuforom, director-general of NIMET during a recent presentation in Abuja.
The prediction indicated that late onset and early cessation of rainfall in and around Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno and Adamawa states was likely to create water stress leading to reduction in production tonnage.
According to the prediction, farmers and agriculturists are advised to heed this important item in the 2016 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction and should supplement with irrigation to enhance crop development.
Abiodun Olorundenro, chief executive officer, Green Vine farms told BusinessDay that proactive measures are already being taken to cushion the anticipated effects of reduced rainfall, saying he intends farming with irrigation as a backup plan to cushion the effect of the dry weather on his crops.
He however lamented that using irrigation and the cost which comes with it will limit the extent of hectares he would be able to cultivate in this year’s planting.
Oludenro also noted that “A lot of framers have not started farming yet. Most of them are still preparing their land for the farming season. The current hot weather might delay planting because we are looking at the patterns before planting.”
The agricultural sector contributed 24.2 percent to GDP in real terms, according to the latest GDP report.
Agrometeorological Bulletin which was earlier released through NIMET’s website this month had noted that “dry season farming is expected to continue over the Northern axis with increasing need for irrigation water.”
The stretch of the South is expected to start preparation for rain fed agriculture. Harvesting of farm produce from irrigation farming and drying of crops will remain the dominant agricultural activity for the third dekad of February. Fruits and vegetables are expected to flood the market as this is its optimal yield of the season.”
Extreme weather conditions are likely to affect not only the outcome of this year’s planting season, but also government’s plans to stop food importation which has been valued at over N1 trillion annually, or at least reduce it to the barest minimum.
While the government’s efforts to boost food supply by 20 million metric tons from 2011 to 2015 has seen the country’s food import bill drop by more than half to $5 billion from $11 billion two years earlier, a drop in agriculture output is likely to set this back.
The adverse weather condition will affect not just crop production, but also fish production which would likely be adversely affected as a result of warmer-than-normal conditions, especially in the coastal parts of the country. Similarly, the poultry industry is projected to be affected as NAN reports that warmer-than-normal conditions in February, March and April were expected to negatively affect livestock production in the affected areas.
It also stated that mortality rate was expected to increase during these months due to temperature fluctuations, stressing that day-old chicks might likely be most affected.
Josephine Okojie & Caleb Ojewale