Continuing a tradition in DR Congo

Since its independence in June 1960, no leader of the Democratic Republic of Congo has left office peacefully. All but one left office alive and even he (Mobutu Sese Seko) died months later in a hospital in Morocco, in exile after being chased out of power by Laurent Kabila in 1997. President Joseph Kabila is on course to continue that tradition as he has refused to step down after the expiration of his two terms ten year rule on the stroke of midnight on 20 December 2016. He had previously ruled for five years before the introduction of democracy in 2006.

According to the DRC’s constitution, the president is permitted only two consecutive mandates of five years. The election to elect Kabila’s successor was to have held in November but in October, Corneille Nangaa, the electoral commission president, told delegates participating in a cross-party talks that the body would not be able to conclude its update of the voter registry in time, and would need extra time to organise an election.

Consequently, the governing coalition and other smaller parties agreed to a dubious deal to delay the elections to April 2018 – a move that has angered opposition groups and is threatening to scupper the fragile peace in the country.

The main opposition coalition was not part of the deal and they view the deal as not fair, not transparent and part of attempts by Kabila to over-stay in office. It certainly wants an election much sooner and objects to Kabila leading an interim government after the expiration of his mandate.

But Kabila has been quite reluctant to leave office and has been preparing the grounds to remain in office long before the expiration of his tenure. The announcement by the electoral commission was just part of the plan. Also, in May 2016, the constitutional court – responding to a request from 260 pro-Kabila parliamentarians – ruled that that the incumbent is allowed to remain in office until elections are held.

Kabila’s supporters in parliament have long sought for a way to modify the constitution to remove the term limits. The plan, since 2013, was to explore the possibility of a referendum. However, the plan was temporarily abandoned in 2014 after the President of the National Assembly failed to secure parliamentary approval for a referendum. That plan is now firmly back.

Also, top members of Kabila’s party – PPRD – have been telling supporters and all who cared to listen that a referendum is the desire of the Congolese people and that there will be a third term for Kabila that the population is going to impose …either by referendum or another form.

Unsurprisingly, billboards and banners have popped up throughout the country welcoming a referendum and unending Kabila hegemony.

Expectedly, violence is looming over the country. There have been protests and demonstrations against the move and on the night Kabila’s tenure expired, more than 20 people died in clashes between protesters and security forces in the capital, Kinshasa alone. This is seen by many analysts and watchers of events in the Congo as a prelude to another round of conflict that has become a part of the vast and resource-rich country.

This vast country, the size of Western Europe with an estimated natural resource endowments of $40 trillion (the combined GDP of the United States and the European Union, has been enmeshed in violence, civil and internecine wars since its independence from Belgium. Perhaps due to envy, or a morbid desire to benefit from the huge mass of mineral resources in the country, world powers and recently, neighbouring countries have always fuelled or interfered with conflicts in the country.

Not long after independence, and in the guise of containing the communist tendencies of the first Prime Minister, Patrice Lumumba, the United States and Belgium sponsored a series of crisis in the country that culminated in the kidnapped and assassination of Lumumba by troops loyal to Joseph Desire Mobutu, the then Head of the Army in 1960.

Since he was helped to power by Western powers in a second coup in 1965, Joseph Desire Mobutu (who later changed his name to Mobutu Sese Seko) and his coteries supervised the despoliation and impoverishment of the country and its people. The Congo DR today stands as a paradox of paradoxes, where extreme poverty of the worst type sits atop extreme wealth, the sheer quantum of which countries and multinationals tussle and competes daily to control. According to most conservative estimates, Mobutu stole $5 billion from his country and some sources put the figure as high as $15 billion. This ranks him as the third most corrupt leader and the most corrupt African leader

Coincidentally, it was Joseph Kabila’s father, Laurent Kabila, who put an end to Mobutu’s miserable 31 year rule when his rebel forces marched on the capital, Kinshasa, following fifteen months of fierce fighting in May 1997. Mobutu was forced to flee in panic to Togo, where, it was reported, the first lady emerged from the plane in her nightgown. He thereafter sought refuge in Morocco, where he owned several homes and died of prostate cancer in September 1997.

No sooner had Lauren- Desire Kabila ascended the presidency in 1997 than he went the way of his predecessor. He was also accused of corruption, authoritarianism, human right abuses, self-aggrandising tendencies, and trying to set up a personality cult just like Mobutu. Soon enough, his allies that helped him depose Mobutu – Uganda and Rwanda – turned against him and sponsored another civil war in the country. He was eventually assassinated by his own body guard in 2001. Fortunately, his government survived and his son was selected to replace him.

Joseph Kabila himself realised this burden of history and has previously expressed worry whether he will leave the presidency alive. But his current actions show no desire on his part to leave the presidency alive.

Some analysts have guessed that it might not be desire for power that is preventing Kabila from leaving but rather a fear of losing his fortune. Kabila is estimated by investigators to have stolen millions in public assets through “dubious mining right sales” and “possible money-laundering schemes.”

In a way, this is a new trend among African leaders which should interest students of African politics and power. One can only pray he does not plunge the hapless and war-weary country into another round of conflict just to protect his and his family’s fortunes and business interests.

Christopher Akor