Opposition fragmentation and likelihood of defeat
There is a widespread acceptance that president Buhari has failed in his duties as president and instead of providing growth, renewal and change that he promised, he’s rather presided over Nigeria’s rapid economic decline, massive de-industrialisation and job losses – up to nine million according to some statistics. The widespread dissatisfaction with the president and his decision to seek another term of four years in office has motivated about 78 other aspirants to join the race also, claiming Nigerian may not survive another four years of a Buhari presidency.
However, if examples from other African countries and even Nigeria are anything to go by, these 78 other contenders for the office of the president may actually be working for the emergence of Buhari as president in 2019.
Studies of election in developing societies have shown that opposition fragmentation and disunity most times helps the incumbent win elections as the fragmented opposition just divide the votes and end up fighting one another rather than fighting together to end the rein of the incumbent.
The opposition in Kenya learnt that lesson the hard way. In the 1992 and 1997 elections, they cumulatively garnered over 60 percent of the votes cast but still lost the election to the incumbent. In 2002, they came together under the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) to defeat the Kenyan African National Union (KANU) that had ruled the country since independence in 1963.
Since then, opposition parties have mastered the art of pre-electoral coalition and unity to confront entrenched and often dominant parties. This strategy has successfully changed governments in Senegal, Liberia, Malawi, Madgascar, Mali, Mauritius, The Gambia and even Nigeria.
Faced with the prospect of a long rule by the governing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) since the return to democratic rule in 1999 and a weakened and fragmented opposition, the Nigerian opposition parties came together to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) that successfully ended the rein of the PDP that had previously vowed to govern Nigeria for 60 uninterrupted years.
Disoriented by its defeat in 2015, the PDP almost tipped over, leaving the ruling APC as the predominant party in Nigeria. In 2017, as disenchantment with the Buhari regime gained momentum, over 39 political parties came together to form a coalition – Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) – to wrestle power from the APC. They also agreed to present just one presidential candidate. However, by 2018 when they were expected to act as a united front, the coalition has gone awry and everyone is going at it alone. The recent rally of the CUPP and the adoption of the PDP candidates is a late attempt at reviving a dead coalition.
First, it is clear president Buhari has lost the support of the southern youths – majority of whom, devoid of the knowledge of history, actively promoted his candidacy and voted for him in 2015.
Secondly, virtually all the 78 aspirants jostling to replace president Buhari are from the south and north central -areas or regions where the 75 year-old former military general has lost support. What this means is that while Buhari remains virtually unchallenged in the regions where his support is strongest, the votes in the regions where he lacks support will be decimated and shared among 78 candidates.
Third, some of these candidates that now excite southern youths all supported and mobilised for president Buhari in 2015. I was shocked recently to discover that even paid agents of the Buhari administration on social media were busy promoting the candidacy of some of these fringe candidates. It appears the strategy is: If Buhari cannot have the votes of Southern youth like he did in 2015, the votes should be dispersed across these fringe candidates who stand no chance in the election.
I may not go far as accusing those candidates of selling out and deception, but I also do not believe they are naive to think they stand any chance in the election or that Buhari can be defeated in such a crowded field that clearly hands an advantage to the incumbent, except if perchance the elections isn’t decided by the first ballot and a rerun is needed. This then questions their motivation for entering the race in the first place at such late a time and with no clear cut strategy to build political structures and mobilise citizens to vote for them. At a period when INEC gives financial subventions to political parties, I could easily have assumed the race is witnessing many parties and candidates strictly for financial purposes. But now, I struggle to make sense of the motivation of this motley crowd, who with one side of the mouth, profess that Buhari has failed and does not deserve another term, but with the other, are working directly to hand him a second term in office
Fourth, none of these other candidates, save that of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, has any formidable political structure across the country. Ditto the political parties. Elections are not conducted and won on social media. It is expected that for someone or persons without adequate political structure and or brand awareness but is desirous of contesting for the presidency of a diverse country like Nigeria, s/he is expected to have begun the process of mobilisation and building of grassroots support long before the time of elections. None of the candidates did that. They were all ensconced in the cities of Lagos and Abuja and only woke up to via for the presidency via obscure parties only at the eleventh hour.
To my mind, Nigerians are about making the same mistake they made in 2015. We’re always in search of the Nigerian messiah, in the mould of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, to, with a strong of the pen, end corruption, revamp its economy and modernise the country. We forget that although it is possible to have a messiah, in most cases, growth and progress are a long, tortuous and incremental journey. It is clear the presidency is using the desire for a youthful and competent leader by a majority of southern youth to distabilise the opposition and snatches a second term in office.
Chris Akor