Bridging the deficit of democracy

Just as the quality of, say, the 2014 Champions League final scheduled for the Stadium of Light in Lisbon, Portugal on May 24 will be function of the referee, the quality of a good election is dependent on the quality of the institution that conducts it.

In Africa the quality of elections is increasingly a sign of a democratic government. In addition there is a gradual transition to institutions away from political personalities, “big men”. The numbers of Africans supporting and demanding democracy is also on the rise.

Unfortunately the supply of democracy and its dividends has struggled to catch up with demand. Such a slow pace is bound to cause disaffection, distrust and can be disruptive.

The next general elections in Nigeria, already predicted to be toughest since Nigeria returned to democracy in 2009, will be test the government’s commitment to free elections. Nigerians, above all, see it as an opportunity to demand more democracy. Nigeria is one of several countries where there is a deficit of democracy, according to Afrobarometer, an NGO that conducts Africa-wide surveys.

In its latest survey: Demand for Democracy in Africa Rises, Supply Falls Short Nigeria Afrobarometer noted that there is a large negative gap between the supply of democracy and the demand for democracy in Nigeria.

Though many Nigerians support democracy (69 percent), the level of satisfaction (32 percent) is below the average for the continent (49 percent).

African countries where the demand for democracy is highest are in West Africa. Afrobarometer reckons “Regimes in this region may be particularly susceptible to mass mobilisation from below as citizens exert pressure for more democracy.”

Thus, in order to have a free and fair election come February preparations must begin today. Preparations such as the distribution of permanent voters’ cards in Ekiti and Osun states and the subsequent conduction in both states should serve as a litmus test for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Naturally, Nigerians are mindful of the benefits of a free and fair election. According to a poll lately conducted by NOI Polls: Countdown to the 2015 Election series, most Nigerians are confident that INEC will organise a decent election. Their reasons: divine providence, credibility of past elections, INEC’s moral duty and independence.

As the countdown to the election season begins all eyes will be on Attahiru Jega, the chairman of INEC. Jega is aware that INEC’s operations will be closely watched particularly after the logistical nightmare and post election violence that marked the beginning and end of the 2011 general elections.

Perhaps it is this memory that is informed some of the people surveyed to express doubts about INEC’s ability to conduct a free and fair election. “Corruption is prevalent within INEC”, “Votes don’t count”, “Past experience showed that elections are not free and fair in Nigeria” and “They are not credible enough” were the reasons for their reservations.

These reservations are justified because there is a close link between the quality of elections and the supply of democracy and its dividends e.g. good governance and socio-economic development.

Though necessary, a free and fair election is insufficient – as the 70 percent of Nigerians living in poverty can testify despite the growth and size of Nigeria’s GDP. Nonetheless, a free and fair election, conducted by an unbiased institution is proof that democracy is working.

Unfortunately, the suspension of Sanusi Lamido, the highly respected and vocal central bank governor, has marred the government’s reputation for interfering with respected institutions. If INEC is perceived has been corrupt, biased and easily manipulated, Nigerians will doubt any elections conducted. All eyes, at home and abroad, are watching.