Buhari and burden of managing expectations

One major challenge facing the President Muhammadu Buhari administration now is how to manage Nigerians’ high expectations given the plethora of mouth-watering promises made by the president and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), during the electioneering campaign. The fact that the realisation of the administration’s ‘Change Agenda’ will be substantially resource-constrained given the present economic realities makes this even more pressing.

During the electioneering campaign, Buhari and the APC had promised Nigerians and the world that they would give corruption a bloody nose, deal decisively with the Boko Haram insurgents, tackle the electricity issue once and for all, among others.

Nigerians also expect the new administration to decisively solve the perennial shortage of petroleum products and restructure the nation’s oil giant, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which has become a drainpipe on the nation’s resources. In short, many Nigerians see President Buhari as the long-awaited messiah who has come to right the wrongs of the past years.

However, barely three weeks into the life of the new administration, some Nigerians are already becoming impatient and expressing disappointment that the promised change may after all be a pipedream. Some say they expected the administration to move faster and not adopt the snail-speed approach for which the Goodluck Jonathan administration was randomly criticised. They point to the issues of non-appointment of ministers and other key functionaries of government, no clear policy statement on economic direction, lack of clarity on the controversial oil subsidy which is at heart of the oil sector crisis, and the recent discrete declaration of assets by President Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo contrary to their electoral promise that they would openly declare their assets. The matter is further worsened by infrastructure shortages and lapses in governance which impact directly on the quality of life of the nation’s 170 million people.

This is why we believe that, beyond random statements that the new president is not a magician or miracle worker, the Buhari administration must learn to manage these expectations, carry Nigerians along every step of the way by communicating clearly every action of government and the direction the nation is headed. This is the only way it can retain the confidence and goodwill of Nigerians.

For instance, with only N220 billion set aside for oil subsidy in this year’s budget, Nigerians would want to know how the Buhari government intends to wriggle out of the situation even as the fuel crisis lingers. Nigerians want to know also whether the modular refineries option would be considered or whether the administration would take to swapping of Nigerian crude for refined products, which featured prominently during Buhari’s earlier stint as military head of state three decades ago, as an interim arrangement to forestall the grounding of economic activities on account of fuel scarcity.

In their post-Annual Pan-African Investor Conference prior to Buhari’s inauguration, analysts at Renaissance Capital (Rencap) had noted that “Nigeria is experiencing a great wave of expectation ahead of Muhammadu Buhari’s 29 May inauguration. Given that the administration will be substantially resource-constrained, we think Buhari’s biggest challenge will be managing expectations”.

They further noted: “During our visit we heard lots of talk of the incoming administration’s focus on talent, and selection of technocrats over politicians. Many believe the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) track record in Lagos State is a good sign that it will deliver at the national level. However, as the incoming ruling party, it will have to be sensitive to zoning issues. As the APC is a coalition, there is a risk compromise may weaken the quality of appointments.”

Similarly, Afrinvest analysts, in a flash note released recently, also observed that “whilst the successful handover of power to the new government is positive for liquidity, regulatory tightening, as well as anticipation of clear policy direction of the new government, may still pose a drag.”

Indeed, Nigerians have come to terms with the fact that Buhari is strongly given to development and long-term competitiveness of the economy, aimed at improving their welfare, but are still at a loss as to strategies for achieving this for the greater number. The onus is on President Buhari and the APC.