Dealing with youth restiveness: learning the very hard way
Following the resurgence of militant activities in the Niger Delta in recent months, the government, rather than act tactfully to calm rising tempers and avert another costly confrontation in the region, preferred to issue series of threats to the new faceless group. For instance, following the attack on Chevron’s platform in Warri, Delta state by the Niger Delta Avengers where pipelines linking Warri and Kaduna refineries were blown up, costing Chevron about 105, 000 barrels of oil production in three days, the President gave fresh orders to the military, particularly the Navy to crush the new militant group. Before then, the President has always responded to news of attacks on the militant group with a vow to crush them just as he is crushing the Boko Haram sect.
But rather than the President’s threat deterring the Avengers, it had strengthened their resolve to further confront the Nigerian state and cripple its economy by disrupting oil export activities.
Unfortunately, the country is already feeling the heat. Between January and March 2016, a total of 959 vandalised points have been recorded on oil infrastructure. Consequently Nigeria’s crude export is down 36 percent to about 1.4 million barrels per day. It means it has lost its status as Africa’s largest crude oil exporter to the likes of Angola, Algeria and Libya. But much more fundamental is the huge economic loss it is causing the country. In these days of low oil prices, a disruption to the volume of exports is the last thing Nigeria needs or can afford. But that is exactly what the Niger Delta Avengers are determined on doing and it appears the President’s directives to the military to crush the vandals aren’t yielding the desired result.
Perhaps, it is in realisation of that the government has now made a volte face and decided to engage the militants in negotiations. Speaking in Lagos on Monday, the Minister of State for Petroleum, Ibe Kachukwu, said candidly: “The military barrels cannot stop or solve problem of militancy in the Niger–Delta region. I will have to go back to my brothers, they are our brothers; we will go and dialogue with them.” On his part, Lai Mohammed, Minister of Information and Culture was more resigned and realistic by admitting that there was no other solution to the issues happening in the Niger Delta other than engaging them in meaningful dialogue.
This is a sad commentary on the Nigerian state and its ability to handle combustible situations and crisis effectively. It is also a clear sign to President Buhari that military approach does not always guarantee victory.
First, we consider it a mistake for the President to tacitly create the impression that the Niger Delta people are a defeated lot and also go after a prominent former militant leader, Government Ekpemupolo alias Tompolo, using the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). We recall that attacks on oil installations began following attempts to clamp down on the erstwhile militant leader.
Secondly, the government needs to devote time and resources to understanding a problem before rushing to provide solutions. Generally, violence and violent youth groups have supplanted local or community elders as real sources of power in the oil producing communities since the early 2000s when it became apparent to them that the only language the Nigerian state understands is that of violence and no other. Like it is happening now, the group is receiving the desired attention only after demonstrating its capacity to fiercely engage the Nigerian state and cause it damage. Had the government fully understood the dynamics playing out in the region, it would have been more tactful and wouldn’t have been so quick to issue threats.
Thirdly, we feel even at the best of times, the government cannot successfully crush militant groups in the Niger Delta and the government should never have resorted to issuing threats. Clearly, the government and security forces are stretched and as all military strategists know, an army should avoid fighting a war on two fronts. The current war against Boko Haram is progressing well in the Northeast of the country and the government must not be in a hurry to open another front in the Niger Delta. Beyond the issue of inadequate resources to successfully prosecute the two wars successfully, the country risked being bogged down by a protracted war with frustrated and determined militants in the Niger Delta and from experience, it is the country that will suffer the consequences.
The Buhari administration is learning the hard way to become more conciliatory and seek to build cross-cutting consensus as the only sustainable way to govern the country effectively. It cannot wilfully alienate critical sections of the society and expect to bulldoze its way through problems.
For now, the government must find creative ways to negotiate with the Niger Delta Avengers so as to end the current standoff and also find permanent solutions to their grievances and the disaffections in the region.