Democracy and its discontents

In Africa support for democracy is robust and rising. Increasingly, the quality of elections is a sign of a democratic government.

In addition there is a gradual transition to institutions away from political personalities, “big men”. The numbers of Africans supporting and demanding democracy is also on the rise. There is a close link between the quality of elections and the supply of democracy and its dividends e.g. good governance and socio-economic development. Unfortunately, the suspension of Sanusi Lamido, the highly respected and vocal central bank governor, has marred the government’s reputation for interfering with respected institutions.

In Demand for Democracy is rising in Africa but most political leaders fail to deliver, a report by Afrobarometer, an NGO that conducts Africa-wide surveys, 70 percent of respondents across 34 African countries stated their preference for democracy.

Unfortunately the supply of democracy, and its dividends, has struggled to catch up with demand. Such a slow pace is bound to cause disaffection, distrust and can be disruptive. According to Afrobarometer, demand for democracy is greatest in West Africa. Because the supply of democracy lags behind the rise in demand, Afrobarometer reckons “Regimes in this region may be particularly susceptible to mass mobilisation from below as citizens exert pressure for more democracy.”

Nigeria is one of five countries: Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Uganda and Zimbabwe the report highlights as experiencing “a deficit of democracy”.

Of these five countries support for democracy is lowest in Nigeria and Cameroon. Over a four year period (2011-2013) 69 percent of Nigerians and 64 percent of Cameroonians said they supported democracy, a few percentage points below the 71 percent average for 34 African countries that participated in the survey.

Though many Nigerians support democracy the level of satisfaction is below the average for the continent. Hence, the next general elections in Nigeria, already predicted to be toughest since Nigeria returned to democracy in 2009, will be test the government’s commitment to free elections.

Nigerians, mindful of the benefits of a free and fair election, are mobilising for the next elections. Heated debates, online and offline, in our typical rambunctious manner began soon after the 2011 elections. Nigerians, home and abroad, are venting their dissatisfaction with the failure of governance, the rising unemployment, poverty and inequality, despite economic growth.

In the Preface to his book: Applied Economics; Thinking Beyond Stage One, Thomas Sowell says “it is helpful to have something of a sense of humour when considering economic policies. Otherwise, the study of these policies and often unintended consequences can get too depressing or get too angry.” He advises readers to save their anger for the election.

We also advise that Nigerians – in addition to being hopeful – to be vigilant.

According to a poll lately conducted by NOI Polls: Countdown to the 2015 Election, most Nigerians are confident that INEC will organise a decent election. Their reasons: divine providence, credibility of past elections, INEC’s moral duty and independence.