Half time score

Two years into the administration of Muhammadu Buhari and the hope and optimism that heralded the administration has been replaced by gloom and near despondency. On the eve of May 29 2015, Nigerians were in a boisterous mood, eagerly anticipating the ‘change’ that was promised them.  Never, since after independence, had there been such a groundswell of optimism in our collective ability to resurrect the ‘crippled and sleeping giant’ of a nation and begin to position it to achieve its manifest destiny of being the voice and leading Africa and the black world.

Even the markets were not left out. On Tuesday, April 2, 2015, the stock market recorded a historic gain, with the All Share Index soaring by an unprecedented 8.4 percent or 2,635.32 basis points, to close at 34,380.14. The market capitalisation of listed equities rose a record N904 billion on the same day to close at N11.621 trillion. Stocks then went on a run of 10 straight days of gains as all key sub-indices on the stock exchange rallied.

However, two years down the line, the optimism has faded and the Nigerian economy is facing its worst decline in over 25 years with many Nigerians preoccupied mainly with the exigencies of living. Although the economy grew marginally by 2.8 percent in 2015, it was the lowest growth since the return to democratic rule in 1999. Predictably, the economy went into decline in 2016, contracting by 1.5 percent, the first such decline since 1991.

Of course the trigger was the decline in crude oil prices, but much more important is the policy choices of this administration which seeks to control the foreign exchange market and the economy, thus forcing foreign investors to repatriate their investments and halt new ones, resulting in a crippling foreign exchange scarcity that led to severe job losses, hyper inflation, and severe dislocations in the economy. Of course, the government’s command and control economics led to the ejection of the country from JP Morgan Emerging Markets Index and the Barclays EM bond Index.

Perhaps, the area where the administration recorded its greatest success in the area of security. The president was clear right from the beginning that he was going to put an end to the Boko Haram insurgency that was allowed to fester for a long time. True to his words, he set about almost immediately on a shuttle diplomacy to rally Nigeria’s neighbours to act in concert to defeat the Boko Haram insurgents that had been terrorizing the country and recently neighbouring countries. He also reorganized and re-energised the Nigerian Armed Forces and they, in turn, have routed the insurgents from their strongholds and are bravely trying to stamp out the last vestiges of the insurgency.

With regards to the war on corruption, there is a growing sense of deja vu in the country that the Buhari administration may not, after all, be able or even morally fit to decisively fight corruption in Nigeria as the President promised time and again before and after the elections. Instead of a policy-driven campaign, the administration, through its various agencies, have gone on rampage, arresting people indiscriminately, engaging in media trials and obtaining so-called confessional statements under duress and splashing them generously on the pages of the newspaper but with few and largely unsuccessful arraignments, prosecutions and convictions. Just some few months ago the government suffered a series of embarrassing court indictments, which shows that the government and its agencies do not care to investigate cases before arraigning suspects. Is it any wonder that the administration has hardly recorded a single conviction in the last two years?

In all, it appears the administration was not prepared for governance despites its colourful campaigns and postulations. But all hope is not lost. Of recent there are positive signs that the economy is gradually emerging from the doldrums. The government needs to intensify its effort, empower competent Nigerians to fashion out comprehensive policy options and strategies for the country to surmount its present challenges and launch itself on the part of sustainable growth and development.

However, with the election circle close at hand, we doubt whether much can be done before politicians suspend governance and focus on election campaigns.