HIV/AIDS prevalence rate: Threat to Nigeria’s economic aspiration

According to the latest report on Nigeria by McKinsey Global Institute, Nigeria has the potential to be one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2030 with a consumer base exceeding the current population of France and Germany. The report also stated that Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy, may expand by about 7.1 per cent per annum through 2030, thereby boosting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to $1.6 trillion, possibly pushing it above Netherlands, Thailand and Malaysia. Furthermore, it reported that about 60 per cent of Nigeria’s estimated population of 273 million by then may live in households earning more than $7,500 a year, thus, fuelling a consumer boom.

On the other hand, the disclosure by Prof. John Idoko, Director General of the National Agency for the Control of AIDS, (NACA) at a Senate public hearing on a bill to prohibit discrimination against persons living with HIV/AIDS that 3.4 million Nigerians were living with HIV/AIDS is enough food for thought. According to him, this figure placed Nigeria as the second largest globally. In addition, he stated that while the national prevalence stabilised at about four per cent, 13 states still carry higher burden.

Further to these revelations, report of the national survey conducted by the federal government for the 2012 National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey-Plus (NARHS Plus) estimated Nigeria’s HIV/AIDS prevalence rate at 3.4 per cent. Also, current statistics from the National HIV Sero Prevalence Sentinel Survey reports showed that for the twenty six year period dated 1986 till December 2011, when AIDS was first reported in Nigeria, 3,459,363 people now live with HIV and an estimated 1,449,166 require ARV. Besides, the record showed that 388,864 new infections occurred in the year ended 2011, while 217,148 AIDS related deaths also occurred for the same period. It is important to note that HIV prevalence rate which grew from 1.8 percent in 1991 to 5.8 percent in 2001 declined by merely 2.4 percent in 10 years despite the huge funding from the federal government, donor agencies and the organized private sector.

No doubt, the HIV / AIDS epidemic in Nigeria poses a big challenge to health and development. Its impact may erode the country’s developmental goals and gains, as well as stultifying and destablising the economy on our road to VISION 2020 if not subdued.

According to experts, HIV/AIDS spread impacts negatively on economic growth by reducing the availability of human capital. People living with HIV/AIDS will not only be unable to work, but will also require significant medical care. The increasing mortality will result in smaller skilled population and labour force. This smaller labour force will be predominantly young people, with reduced knowledge and work experience leading to reduced productivity.

Although, some progress has been made in the fight against HIV/AIDS, the truth remains that Nigeria is still one of the most burdened nations with about 3 million people living with the disease. Also, while awareness about HIV/AIDS has gradually increased among the Nigerian population, misconceptions about transmission are still high. Consequently, these realities compel the need for a review of the strategies in order to achieve a more effective control of the HIV epidemic in the country.

In addition, there is an urgent need for transparency, proper funds administration, clear motives and attitudes of government officials as well as key NGO personnel for the country to make significant progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS.