The deteriorating situation in Burundi

Since April last year when Burundian President, Pierre Nkurunziza decided to run for a third term in office, that country has been thrown into an avoidable crisis that keeps spiralling out of control with each passing day and may lead to a return to ethnic killings and regional tensions that once defined the country and Rwanda, it’s closest neighbour in the early 1990s. That announcement sparked protests, later turning into an uprising and inevitable government clampdown on the opposition which has led to countless deaths, many unwarranted arrests and killings of protesters and opposition figures and over 200, 000 fleeing the country and compounding the refugee problem in the region.

During that time also, the country’s highest court approved Nkurunziza’s right to run for a third term in office. But to show how terribly weak and shackled the court was, the Vice President of the court fled the country claiming he had received death threats from senior members of the government. Two other judges also left and the remaining four judges approved the decision. Expectedly, that decision was disregarded by the opposition and the international community, and despite Nkurunziza organising and winning a sham election, tension and conflict is yet to abate and the country is on the verge of relapsing into another round of civil war, which had previously consumed the country from 1993 to 2005.

In May of 2015, a military coup was staged to remove Nkurunziza when he travelled to Tanzania to attend an emergency conference on the crisis in the country. However, by the next day, the coup collapsed. Since then, the situation has escalated with the Nkurunziza’s regime fiercely attempting to reassert control over the country and widespread killings and attacks have become widespread.

In December 2015, the African Union, in an unprecedented move, announced its decision to send in 5000 peacekeepers to the country with or without the government’s permission to stop the violence and prevent a return to another round of civil war and ethnic cleansing. The international community was impressed by the move and were willing to support the AU especially with funding to see to the success of the peacekeeping mission.  But after the move was opposed by Burundi and Tanzania – Burundi’s big brother in the region – the consensus collapsed and the AU, instead, decided to send only a high-level delegation to negotiate a solution obviously acceptable to President Nkurunziza.

However, the greatest fear of regional watchers and the international community is the fear that the current crisis, if not quickly stopped, could lead to a resurgence of ethnic cleansing and regional conflict or war with neighbour, Rwanda, governed by the rival Tutsis. In a confirmation of that fear, a confidential United Nations report that became public in the first week of February, accused the Rwandan government of secretly training mainly Tutsi rebels to overthrow the government of President Nkurunziza.

The two former Belgian colonies have been plagued by perpetual tensions since independence between the usually-dominant Tutsi minority and the Hutu majority. Ethnic tensions and wrangling got to a head in the 1990s and led to civil war and genocide in Rwanda that claimed the lives of close to a million Tutsis and moderate Hutus in 1994. It took the strong intervention of Paul Kagame’s exiled Tutsi militia to stop the genocide. Kagame has since planted himself and the Tutsis in firm control of Rwanda. Burundi, on the other hand, galloped from one ethnic tension and killings to another and fought a similar bloody civil war from 1993 to 2005. The war was brought to an end by a complex peace agreement which clearly stipulated power and position sharing between the two ethnic groups. This threw up Nkurunziza, a former Hutu rebel leader, as President in 2005. In reality however, the two groups were one people with the same language and culture, but were forcefully separated by the Belgian colonialists into owners of cattle and farmers to ensure easy governance and exploitation.

Once again, the African Union has missed a golden opportunity to assert itself and show its capacity to prevent and stop conflicts from escalating in the region. It has continued to give credence to criticisms that it is merely a talk shop and a wingless eagle. Its decision to back out of the plan to send peacekeepers to Burundi, even when the European Union has agreed to pick the bill of its peacekeeping operations, is truly unfortunate. It continues to shirk its responsibilities while expecting the world to take it seriously.

We call on the AU to reconsider its position and rededicate itself more firmly to the prevention of wars and conflicts in the region. It cannot continue to rely on the world to solve its problems. That is why it exists. It must act quickly now to prevent the unfolding conflagration in the region especially now that the United Nations has declared that it is in a weaker position than it was in 1994 in the region and may be unable to prevent a return to violence in the region.