The electoral rebuke of the ANC

The 2016 South African municipal elections were held on August 3, for all districts, metropolitan and local municipalities in all 9 provinces. The election was a watershed in post-apartheid South Africa as it witnessed a turning point in popular support for the dominant African National Congress (ANC) with support falling well below 60 percent for the first time since 1994. The final results show that nationally the ANC secured 54 percent of the votes cast, with the previously white dominated party – Democratic Alliance – coming second with 26.23 percent of the votes while Julius Malema’s new, youthful and ultra leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) came third with 7.93 percent.

Although the ANC led with most of the votes nationally, it lost grounds on key areas such as Tshwane and Port Elizabeth municipality, which was renamed Nelson Mandela Bay. It also failed to secure an outright majority in Johannesburg, Mogale City and Ekurhuleni. With no outright majority secured in the latter municipalities, coalitions have to be formed in order to govern.

The loss of Nelson Mandela Bay – a key ANC stronghold – to the DA came to many as a shock despite the virulent ANC campaign there invoking anti-apartheid messages. The fact that a white man will be mayor of that municipality shows that there is now a clear paradigm shift in South Africa’s politics and that voters are now more interested in issues than in race and colour.

Also, the ANC is fast losing its support in the towns and cities as the result shows. City dwellers (who are mostly young and educated) have been so disappointed with the ANC that they are now clearly ready to consider the alternative – a white dominated (and formerly racist) party that has demonstrated its capacity for management and governance. Despite Mr Zuma angrily dismissing them as “un-Africa” for refusing to support the ANC, it is clear the young and educated South Africans of today do not have the strong attachment to the ANC as their parents did probably because they did not experience apartheid first-hand and can no longer rationalise their support for a corrupt and inept elite and party that has continued to mismanage the affairs of the country. It is well that the DA is also sensing the mood of the country and has done quite a lot recently to reform itself, including appointing a black man. ANC’s support base is now almost restricted to the rural areas. This means the party will struggle to maintain its national majority with only rural votes.

With the ANC failing to secure an outright majority in Johannesburg, Mogale City and Ekurhuleni, coalitions have to be formed – and this is where Julius Malema and his EFF becomes key and probably king makers. Formed only in 2013 and contesting in only its first municipal elections, South Africans generously rewarded the EFF for its sheer enthusiasm and energising the youth with approximately 8 percent of the national votes casts. The EFF will be key in determining which of the parties govern in these municipalities.

It is a big shame that the ANC – the party of the venerable Nelson Mandela and the foremost and longstanding political party in the entire of Africa – has allowed its moral and political authority to be so badly eroded in so short a time.

To be sure, this election is and must be seen as a national referendum on Jacob Zuma and his scandalous administration of the country. The putrefying smell of his many corruption and governance scandals – the Nkandala scandal, political cronyism and the unhealthy influence of the controversial Gupta family, attempt to control SABC – South Africa’s public broadcaster – banning it from covering protests and the killing of the protesting Marikana miners – have finally gotten to South Africans who are showing signs of readiness to ditch a party that is the symbol of their over 80 decades fight against apartheid and racial domination.

Sadly, despite the clear handwriting on the wall, the ANC executive committee, stacked with Zuma’s lackeys, has continued to stick with Zuma and is busy shifting blames around.

But just like Nigeria’s PDP, it is not difficult to see that the ANC’s absolute electoral defeat is near if nothing is done urgently to dispense with the corrupt Zuma and reform the party in line with the vision of its founders and leading lights like Nelson Mandela.