The looming food crisis

Since the steep fall in oil prices and the consequent decline in revenue receipt by all levels of government in Nigeria, there have been urgent calls for the diversification of the Nigerian economy. In a bid to conserve foreign exchange and encourage local production of some essential items we had hitherto imported, the federal government placed some items on import ban by restricting access to forex while encouraging local manufacturers, farmers and Nigerians in general to aggressively embark on import-substitution production. One area where this is most needed is in the agricultural sector.  Nigeria was said to spend about $11 billion importing food each year. More painful is the fact that most of the food items we import can easily be grown locally with enough left over for exports.

However, the federal government’s drive for increased food production is in danger of being derailed and a food crisis ensuing due to the scarcity of forex to import food. According to media reports, the federal government is yet to settle outstanding N72 billion debt owed fertilizer, seed and other input suppliers. Consequently, the agro allied suppliers are not ready to supply seeds and fertilizers to farmers anymore, until the outstanding debt since 2014 is settled. The implication is that the development will affect the ability of farmers to buy the necessary farm inputs, which will in turn have a negative impact on farm yields this season.

During the administration of Goodluck Jonathan, farmers got seeds of tree crops such as cocoa and palm oil free of charge while others paid half the market price for the seeds they bought. The programme, called the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GES), agro-allied contractors supply fertilizers and seeds to farmers, with the agreement that the federal and state governments pay 25 percent each while farmers bear the cost of the remaining 50 percent.

However, since 2014, the agro allied suppliers have not been paid and the suppliers are not ready to supply the seeds on credit. Unfortunately, while the GES programme persists, other seed and agro allied suppliers who were not willing to work with the government were made redundant and crowded out of the market. So we now have a situation where farmers go from not buying seeds in 2014 to buying seeds, which at the moment have gone up by 30 percent and are scarcely available.

Meanwhile the Buhari government looks unlikely to offset the debt and by the end of May, the planting season would almost have gone, and that would mean, preparing for the crisis. Even if the federal government is willing to pay, Nigeria’s cash-strapped states can hardly sustain the GES initiative as their monthly allocations continue to nosedive on the back of dwindling oil revenues

While the government’s efforts boosted food supply by 20 million metric tons from 2011 to 2015 and saw the country’s food import bill drop by more than half to $5 billion from $11 billion, a drop in agriculture output is likely to set this back

What is more, farmers are yet to commence planting because of the extreme weather condition. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) have earlier predicted that most parts of the country will experience less than normal volume, delayed, and early cessation of rainfall across most parts of the country compared to previous years.

The net effect is that harvests are going to be very poor this year and the goal of import-substitution farming that the government has been championing will be defeated. Meanwhile, except the prices of oil picks up before then, there will still be scarcity of forex for emergency food importation.

But it does not appear the government is as concerned about this situation as stakeholders in the agricultural sector. If it was, it should have done something to address the problem. This is the time to act before it is too late.