The strength in Nigeria’s population
Ever since Thomas Robert Malthus ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’ elevated the discourse on population and political economy, it has become fashionable for different reasons to consider population increase or a large population as a negative trend. Malthus raised concerns on the negative consequences that may emerge if population growth increases at geometric proportions and food production rates only grows arithmetically. Malthus was more worried over a rising population that is not matched with sufficient subsistence resources.
Nigeria’s current population is estimated to be slightly over 160 million. With a growth rate of 3.2 percent, the United Nations predicts that the country’s population may increase to 440 million by 2050.
The popular perception of Nigeria’s huge population is that it poses a hindrance to development and that for Nigeria to develop it has to cut its population size drastically. This viewpoint mouthed by international organizations, celebrated by western sponsored organizations and western donors is not supported by development history or even the economic history of these western nations that pump in so much funds for reducing fertility rates in Africa.
No remarkable industrial growth can be recorded in any economy that has no substantial captive consumer market either within its territories or overseas.
Industrial growth in Britain and France, major colonial powers, was spurred not just by the creation of factories in these countries but by the large markets created for its products across colonial and captive markets in Africa, Asia and the New World. The search for markets was no doubt the driving force behind colonization.
In the US, rising immigrant population in the 19th and early 20th centuries was a major driver of rapid industrial growth. It can be recalled that cheap Asian labour was notoriously used in breaking labour strikes in the US.
One major reason for the evolution of the European Union was the need to create a large market of workers and consumers. It is not surprising why across Europe today increasing low fertility rates is a challenge. China’s industrial prowess is no doubt a force to reckon with today. This is because it commands a huge local population, a ready market for its industrial products and a substantial labour force that can be galvanized to run its factories. It is common knowledge that many western brands across product lines are churned out massively at low costs in China owing essentially to cheaper cost of labour in China.
If rising population is really a dis-incentive to real development, why are the US, Britain, Canada and Australia vigorously pursuing their diversity immigrant programmes?
What should really worry Nigeria is not a rising population but the seeming paucity of visionary leadership that does not see the strength in our population, and its inability to use it to turn around our fortunes. Take for example the huge market and business potential Nigeria’s population provided the telecommunications businesses. With over 100 million mobile phone subscribers, Nigeria is the dream market for any telecommunications operator.
With over fifty years of national development experience, time is really ripe for us to scrutinize a few development theses foisted on us by imperialists that take delight in distracting so called Third World leaders from their strength. Granted, population can generate either dividend or disaster. If its potentials are harnessed by a visionary leader it can provide a veritable platform for growth, or become a source of confusion for clueless leaders.
Nigeria’s population, those at home and in diaspora, is a veritable source for true industrial take-off. This fact sends fear across the corridors of power in current industrialized countries.