The 2018 Budget: The immiseration of a hundred million hand-to-mouth economies

In Nigeria, the budget means different things to different people. To the over 100 million informal sector operators, whose microenterprises fund their hand-to-mouth economies from the crumbs falling out of government spending; who are roundly poor and deprived, the budget is like the rain that falls on crops planted on dry land. It sooths the pain of the scorching heat and makes the crop grow. But to some in government, especially those with access to the items of budget, it is an avenue to dream up projects for “their communities”, although it is alleged that quite often, the projects are more for private gains than the benefit of communities. This dichotomy of purpose has made budget time one of contention rather than stock-taking and rumination, which it truly is. In reality, every budget presents an occasion for sober reflection. It is an occasion for refocusing on issues and redirecting energies and resources towards achieving higher levels of development for the benefit of the majority of its people. This is usually done in the context of a longer term plan, such as the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) we currently have.
And so, the 2018 Budget, coming in the 58th year of Nigeria’s independence and the penultimate year of the first term of the “restorative” administration of Muhammadu Buhari, assumes greater significance for a number of reasons. First, the 2018 budget is being prepared by a nation in mature adulthood that is closer to a senior citizen than a mature adult. In that regard, it is no longer fashionable to point to the errors of Lord Laggard and the colonial masters as explanation of our past mismanagement and non-performance. Indeed, there can’t be any more excuses for future failures – not even the sins of the past leadership (often cited by succeeding leaders), even if those sins were actually black as crimson.
Second, this budget is coming at a time when the economy has been subjected to intense and conflicting pressures from both internal and external sources, fuelled by enhanced expectations by people whose socio-economic needs we had signally ignored over time. While these pressures generate understandable disquiet, what the current situation demands is restraint in expectations, prudence in resource management and more transparent efforts, not only to heal the wounds of the pastand probably obliterate their scares,but also toprevent the inflicting of fresh wounds. These are essential to successfully building up national assets (physical, financial and emotional) for economic growth and development. Such restraint and prudence in the management of public resources, if clearly and properly demonstrated, would in time yield dividends in the form of confidence and support from both internal and external sources.Is it not Biblical that only to those who managed well their talents was added?
Third,the Nigerian economy has just exited a recession, which exit was occasioned by positive developments in the oil sector. The non-oil sector is yet to look north. The recovery is therefore fragile and could unravel. Besides, our country has never been so threatened with dismemberment of the nature we currently face; not even by the civil war. In other words, this is one budget season with which we ought not to play politics
Fourth, and very important, this is the last budget the Buhari Administration will superintend, before it seeks re-election in 2019. Its impact or the lack of it will reverberate andshape the conditions of voters as the 2019 election gets underway.
A key feature ofour economy is that its larger component is a large and growing informal sector, which despite the huge sums of money spent every year by governments, still has relies on informal credit markets. But the informal sector has continued to control squarely, many sectors of the economy. Its contribution is evidently higher than that of the public sector in the areas of agriculture, transportation, housing, social security and entertainment.The informal sector is also playing dominant roles in commerce and finance. Despite the introduction of microfinance and mortgage banks, most operators in the sector still patronise and indeed rely more on financing sources outside the formal sector. It is now an accepted fact that our government has been legislating on the fringes of an economy that is essentially unrecorded. This is why the social relevance of government has been waning over time – a process that has amplified the structural tension and restiveness in the country.
Consistent with the existing policy of rolling back the frontiers of state in most areas of core economic activity,and enhancing public participation, buoyed by our shared understanding that government is still on the driving seat of this economy,being its largest spender, a properly thought out budget,timeously delivered is a sine quo non to our national economic prosperity. There is need therefore to assist the informal sector to continue to host those we have structured to the periphery of their commonweal. To delay the budget and focus on laws that protect the slave masters, such as the Hate Speech Law, is a national disaster of catastrophic dimensions.
The informal sector is that segment of the economy whereNigerian go and hide when they lose their jobs.It includes the rural farming activity. The large number of self-employed individuals trying to make a living, in their own ways is there. In this sector, we find all kinds of artisans – plumbers, electrician, welders and metal workers, commuter vehicles, including the illegal (kabukabu) taxis, which are now at the receiving end of massive punishment unleashed by Uber and Taxify.
The most significant attributes of the informal sector include the fact that most of the businesses are not registered; not capitalised and not protected by laws. They are mostly subsistent and often engage in illegality as a matter of course. They lack any proper legal framework for operation and contracts are mostly unenforceable. Their title to property is sure to be incomplete and bankable assets are hard to find.These factors ensure that productivity is low, income is low and most members are technically unemployed. The informal sector is reputed for its resilience and boisterousness, enterprise, will power and unrelenting survival spirit. However, the existence of a large informal sector is nothing of pride for any nation. It is actually a sign that something is wrong somewhere in the structure and functioning of the economy.
Today, over 100million immiserated Nigerians are gazing the sky for government spending – the budget. As farmers watch the weather to plan,so do families whose hand-to-mouth economies have stalled are waiting for the budget. Those delaying it are alleged to be busy crafting self-preserving Hate Speech Laws, and elongating election timelines, when Nigeria should hold all elections in one day to cut costs. They have left the boat taking us to the Promised Land.
Finally, we caution that as our leaders continue their race to the bottom, It may be fine to refuse approving Buhari’s nominees for any number of reasons (after all some allege that his own sins are also Legion), butfor a few people with questionable productivityand contribution to our national well-being to turn 180million Nigerians to beggars may fast-track the overdue time of reckoning we owe those whose patrimony we are squandering.
“The man dies in all who keep silent in the face of tyranny.” – Wole Soyinka.

Emeka Osuji