Nigeria’s rising fertility rate and current economic realities

Though Nigeria’s economy plunged deeper into recession with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracting by 2.24 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2016, TIAMIYU ADIO writes that yet Nigerians are giving birth.

A recently released National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data show that some states in Nigeria are outdoing others in bringing new offspring into the world, reporting a surge in fertility rates.

Doyin Odubanjo, a public health specialist said, “For those states that have a high fertility rate, it has an impact on their health and can become worrisome (if the high birth rates become an economic burden).”

He further explained that “If fertility rate is above 5.0 medically it means that on average each woman of child bearing would have 8 children, medically that is not good because when a woman now has more than five children she is considered high risk, anytime she gets pregnant she is more prone to complications.”

It is critical to understand why fertility remains so high in Nigeria. In 2015, total fertility rate was 5.5 births per woman (or 5,500 births per 1,000 women).

This simply means that, if the age-specific rates for the year 2015 had continued without any changes, then women in Nigeria would have had on the average (at least) 5 children each during their entire childbearing years.

In 2015, the fertility rate in Canada was estimated to be 1.59 children per woman while in United State of America in 2015; it was estimated to be 1.88 and United Kingdom in 2015 the fertility there was estimated to be 1.92.

In 2016, the fertility rate in Singapore was estimated to be 0.82 children per woman. The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country.

In 2016, the number of babies born in Japan is estimated to have fallen below 1 million, for the first time since the government started to compile comparative figures in 1899. Japan’s birth rate is among the lowest in the world.

Nigeria’s population growth is expected to continue through at least 2050 due to simple population momentum.

According to Odubanjo, for Nigerians states with high fertility rate, that itself can portend danger for their own health statistics in terms of maternal and infant health (and mortality).

“If health facilities are poor, then it means the economy will be bad because if the people are not healthy they cannot contribute to the country’s GDP.

Oladapo Ladipo, the Chief Executive Officer, Association for Reproductive and Family Health (ARFH), said at the fourth Nigeria’s family planning conference held in Abuja, of what the survival of Nigerians would be in 24 years, given that the country is already finding it difficult to manage its population of about 188 million.

“Without a doubt, Nigeria is habitually increasing in population and there are indices that the country will outnumber the United States of America (USA) by 30 million people by 2050.” He noted

Ladipo advised “We have a population policy that currently encourages four children per couple. I think that policy needs to be revisited by government and we all sit down together to do what is rational. I will not support legislation. Family planning should be free. It is by choice. But everybody should recognise that everyone has the right to family planning.”

Odubanjo noted that in Europe, the fertility rate is on the low side, which is why many of them are having all kinds of migration strategies.

“They do all kind of schemes to have people migrate there or accept immigrants, not because of the goodness of their heart, but because they need the workforce.”

Odubanjo also said that what has happened to them over the years is that as a result of low fertility, their workforce is shrinking with increasing number of old people working due to a good health system.

“They are also keeping people alive for longer, they have very many old people but fewer people who can work and contribute to their development”.

“Instead of just going natural because if they go natural fertility it will take them many years before those children grow and can start working, so in the interim they make people migrate there.”

So, there is a good chance that you have a lot of health incidence there, and then when you now look at it again economically, how well would this women or men take care of these children, here also become a burden.

“Nigerians in the past had a lot of children per woman and one reason why that was happening was because child survival was very low. People who wanted to have many children who could help them on the farm or to propagate their name, but unsure of how many children would survive because of poor health care facilities and poor personal hygiene; chose to have as many births as possible.

“However, unlike those days, today, we have better health care than as it used to be,” Odubanjo said.

According to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) data, a Washington-based population, health, and environment organisation said in its PRB August 2015 Data Sheet that Nigeria would topple Indonesia to occupy the No. 4 position on the index of most populated countries in the world.

The report said Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia would respectively replace Russia and Mexico in the No. 9 and No. 10 population spots by 2050. The data showed that Nigeria was No. 7 with a predictable 182 million people, and would have 397 million people by that year.

Odubanjo advises “we have to engage with people having high fertility rates to understand their reasons for having so many children; it could be cultural or religious. We should also know why the fertility has persisted as high as it is, also to educate them properly so that whatever their reasons might be they would also be empowered by knowledge.

“Health education needs to be strengthened the more, and they are more likely to begin to abide by it or even make use of their own family planning.”

TIAMIYU ADIO