A nation waiting on the fringes

Currently, there are cheering news penetrating the socio-economic landscape of Nigeria: Firstly, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report about the nation’s economy on 28 February shows a slight improvement in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) though not in all sectors of the economy; secondly, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s modified foreign exchange (forex) policy, has given the Naira an appreciable value by injecting supply of more Dollars into the economy.

As most Nigerians are celebrating what appears to be success economically, Mr President is still on medical vacation. The lingering controversies occasioned by attempts to cover up the real health status of President Buhari has raised further questions about the credibility of statements issued by members of his kitchen cabinet. Meanwhile, the Acting President, Yemi Osinbajo, is on the move, doing his job to the admiration of most Nigerians. But spokesmen for the federal government have argued that Yemi Osinbajo’s successes recorded in the past few weeks are in line with Buhari’s policies and vision. No qualms!

I am aware that every Nigerian is entitled to medical privacy regarding his or her health status. But it wouldn’t have been a bad idea if Nigerians know the true medical status of their president. Some Nigerians say “they voted for Buhari, and they need to know why he is not available in office.” At the highest level of government, communication is key between leadership and the led. While improved government communication has a strong multiplier effect. However, starving people of information could lead to serious impediment to governance. Those in government should not underestimate the role of communication from the government towards achieving good governance.

Anyway, some Nigerians say “we’re waiting for the truth on the state of our president’s health.” I join numerous Nigerians to pray for Mr President’s quick recovery, because he has to deliver the “change” he promised Nigerians. There are reports that House of Reps members clash last week, over Buhari’s health status. While one of the honorable members say that “our beloved President is sick abroad,” the other says “no, he’s on medical vacation.” Thus, the lower chamber of the National Assembly is divided along these lines, and perhaps, those who are neutral.

The year 2019 is the time of reward for politicians who are currently appointed or elected to serve the nation. Politicians have started going into alliances preparatory to 2019. We can see defections from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to All Peoples Congress (APC) and vice versa. But Bola Tinubu, an APC national leader, refutes allegations of contesting for presidency of Nigeria. It’s in 2019 that Nigerians will go to the polls to vote only for those politicians who can guarantee their security and welfare. Some friends once told me that they are on the fringes appraising those elected and appointed officials who are performing and underperforming. For the APC-led government to have majority vote, it needs to build broad support and legitimacy for its programs.

Back to the nation’s economy.The NBS recent release of the nation’s GDP growth rate for the country is making the news. The nation recorded a contraction of -1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, and -1.5 percent for the year

2017. In terms of sectoral performance, the NBS reports that vandalism of oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta affected the reduction in production resulting in a contraction by -3.65 percent. For the non-oil sector, the report reflects a decline of -0.33 percent in the last quarter of 2016. The agricultural sector was not hard hit by the fall in GDP in 2016. This gives an impression that policies of government in the agricultural sector of the economy are yielding positive results. The federal and state governments need to intensify efforts in their diversification agenda.

Concerning the modified CBN forex policy, Nigerians are waiting to see how far the apex bank can go in order to strengthen the value of the Naira. The CBN is reported to have pumped US$ 780 million in the past few days to banks to wrestle the Naira from currency speculators. In the interim, some Nigerians are hopeful that the nation may likely come out of recession in 2017 provided economic fundamentals are sustained.It is however, not very clear whether the current appreciation of the Naira should be celebrated because Nigeria is still largely an import dependent economy. Hmm, a nation with multiple exchange rates that imports “garri” from India.

For several months, the CBN has been managing five or more rates of naira to the Dollar to the extent that the Naira exchange rate was about N516/US$ in the black market. The Naira rate has appreciated in the past one week to about N455/US$ due to increasing Dollar supply. Nigerians are inquiring if the CBN can sustain its modified forex policy, and for how long. Economists are bothered because those who need the Dollar want the exchange rate at N300/US$, while the “Abokis” who sell on the streets want the value to go as high as N1000/US$ in the black market. Political economists are equally disturbed as they ask: if the widely divergent multiple exchange rates will still prevail? If it does, will those “powerful” Nigerians not exploit gaps provided by multiple exchange rates?

As the Dollar bazaar continues, Nigerians travelling abroad for business and pleasure trips, parents whose wards are schooling abroad, and those on medical evacuationincluding manufacturers, can approach their banks for forex. The fact is that Nigeria’s economy is still in recession.Inflation, unemployment, and most importantly, poverty is still increasing alarmingly. While some Nigerians are waiting on the fringes, analysts are perturbed as they perceive the Naira may go through another round of devaluation.Devaluation of the Naira is inevitable, if the CBN cannot sustain the current pumping of Dollars into the market.The APC-led federal government needs to work very hard to bring back the confidence of Nigerians, while fixing the economy through diversification efforts.

MA Johnson