Trump-Kim summit: Will diplomacy fail?

Most nations want to possess nuclear power so that they can be relevant in world affairs and also, be part of the club of “powerful” nations. To a poor nation, the acquisition of a nuclear weapon gives it a reasonable degree of immunity from attack by “powerful” nations.North Korea has joined the list of countries with nuclear weapons.
You will recall that sometime in 2017, North Korea claimed it has successfully tested what the world was worried about- a miniaturized hydrogen bomb that could be loaded on top of a long range missile. Equally, several tests of Inter-Continental Ballistics Missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland were conducted. These tests were very scary and they caused panic globally. To de-escalate tension in the Korean Peninsula, this writer then suggested in an article titled “Kim Jong-Un in love with nukes,” that the military option was not the best of all options in the short and medium terms because of its implication on global peace and security. It was advised that “America should use diplomacy as an instrument of national power to realign North Korea to embracing regional and world peace.”
In search of peace, the former Director of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, received a marching order from Donald Trump to meet with Kim Jong-Un, the North Korean leader in Pyongyang to prepare grounds for a possible summit between the two leaders. There was a sigh of relief that peace may return to the Korean Peninsula as in the words of Winston Churchill, “better to jaw-jaw than to war-war.”
This summit is unprecedented as no former US president ever held talks with a North Korean leader. At last, Kim Jong-Un has dropped his ego and he is willing to use his country’s nuclear arsenal as a bargaining chip for security guarantees and economic aids. Trump is also willing to have a diplomatic meeting with Kim Jong-Un. The main subject at the summit which takes place sometime in May or June 2018 is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula thereby bringing peace to the North Asia region and by extension the world.
Ahead of the Trump-Kim summit was a peace process initiated at the “peace village” on the Demilitarized Zone. On April 27, 2018 history was made when the South and North Korean leaders met for the first time in sixty-five years to end the war in the Korean Peninsula. The two leaders have committed their nations to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and pledged to formally end the Korean War. With the recent peace agreement between the two countries, it’s unlikely that China or Russia will use North Korea as a counterweight against South Korea in the future. But does the agreement between the Korean leaders cover denuclearization or was it to stop further testing of missile warheads?
There are speculations that Trump is likely to vent his anger on Kim during the summit. And in addition experts believe that what Trump professesat the denuclearization summit is inviolable. He has however, cautioned that he will respectfully leave the summit if Kim does not accept his terms and conditions to denuclearize. Kim also, cannot be predicted. That is why the two leaders are considered a “toxic combination,” and the outcome of the summit cannot be predicted.
Diplomats have expressed their concerns that a face-to-face meeting between the two elephants carries a lot of risks. The risk is in the two leaders getting something concrete out of the meeting that is favorable to both parties. If not, diplomacy would be declared a failure. When diplomacy fails, war begins. No one prays for war in that region. Indeed, it is widely reported that Kim has declared that North Korea no longer needs nuclear tests because its quest for nuclear weapon is “complete” and it “no longer needs” to test its weapon’s capability.
Rational US goals for the meeting is likely to include the return of US detainees in North Korea, the return of soldiers’ remains that are held from the Korean War of 1956, place a stop on the nuclear program and a ban on North Korea selling chemical weapons to Syria or any other country for that matter. The North Korean leader aims will likely include getting a relief from economic sanctions as the country is desperately in need of economic development. He also needs assurances from Trump about his regime’s long term survival. It would be a dangerous endeavor if the agenda, objectives, negotiating points, and risks of the summit are not adhered to by both parties.
Trump has however, declared that the “US will not lift sanctions until North Korea had substantially dismantled its nuclear programs.” Irrespective of verbal declarations, there is optimism that diplomacy will not fail as Kim has declared that he would stop missile testing. If the summit however fails, which is a distinct possibility, it is advisable that both leaders remain careful so that the pendulum doesn’t swing to regular nuclear missile testing and threat of war. If diplomacy fails, Trump may return to tweeting “fire and fury.” With the passage of time, it is better for both leaders to remain circumspect as this may help prevent such a reversal later.
The North-East Asia subregion needs peace. Yes, the world needs peace. The world cannot afford a nuclear war. It would be very devastating at a time when global gross public debt has risen in recent years and is set to stand at 82 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2018, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As Trump and Kim prepares to meet, the world waits patiently to see whether diplomacy will further bring peace to North East Asia.

MA Johnson