A toast to Nigeria @ 56: Creating basis for sustainable economic development.

It is generally agreed that our country has miserably underperformed in its 56 years of existence as an independent nation. The dreams of the founding fathers of independent Nigeria seem to have been aborted or to have suffered still-birth. Fifty six years after independence and with so much money made from the export of crude petroleum, the Nigerian condition has not improved much from what it was on October 1, 1960. To many who were born before then, it continues to look as if things have gotten worse. The human development index seems to support this view. Poverty worsened from 45% in 1970 to nearly 70% in 2010 and in 2015 it was still high at 64%. Life expectancy declined from 54 years in 1970 to 48 years in 2010 and rose to 53 Years in 2015 but still below the 1980 level. The malaria parasite continues to devastate young children with the same ferocity (if not more) in 2015 as it did in 1970.
Nigeria was a promising country when it gained independence from 1960 and showed steady growth and good performance until 1966 when the military struck and destabilized the nation. But over 36 years since the civil war ended and after 18 unbroken years of democratic governance since 1999, the anticipated growth and development have not been realized and in some respects, things have gotten worse, despite flashes of improvement in a few arrears like urban development, telecommunications and domestic entrepreneurship. Unemployment and underemployment is still at a worrying rate of nearly 45% in the youth population and crime has become one of the fastest growing industries in Nigeria. At home, Nigerians are unhappy with the situation, hence they voted for change in 2015, but that change seems either very slow in coming or is actually suspended or even postponed. Abroad, Nigerians continue to face image issues as we have been branded “fantastically corrupt”. Much of the news about Nigeria both in local and international media is about terrorism, militancy, kidnapping, corruption, vote rigging, Fulani herdsmen and farmers’ clashes, and very poor infrastructure. Nigeria is regarded as one of the countries in the world with the poorest security records. Our police and some other security officers collect cash openly from motorists on the highways without shame. Nigerians are killed like rats daily and nothing much happens. On every score, Nigeria is rated poorly- on the ease of doing business, we are 169 out of 189; on global competitiveness index, we are 127 out of 138; on corruption perception index, we are 136 out of 170 countries.
The statistics are depressing and it looks like there is nothing to cheer. But I believe that despite this litany of failures, we can still cheer ourselves in the hope that God has not finished with us. First is that we survived a 3-year civil war and within a short period had a semblance of integration on both sides of the conflict. Despite the stresses and pressures of an unstable federation which we operate, we have avoided another war. I really think that we need to cheer that we disappointed the predictions of the world that Nigeria would violently fall apart in 2015 following the presidential elections. President Goodluck Jonathan displayed an unparalleled patriotism and statesmanship by conceding defeat without a whimper, no disputations, no court case, no elicitation of protests and violence. Nigeria made one of the most peaceful leadership transitions in Africa. And since then the successor President, Muhammadu Buhari has taken on the fight against one of Nigeria’s major Achilles hills- corruption. Though the fight is currently perceived as one-sided or selective and not deep enough, it is a good thing that the fight is on and hopefully over time will cover all aspects of our society. Just recently, the National Judicial Council (NJC) indicted three senior judges for acts of corruption and recommended disciplinary actions against them. These are signs that the war is enlarging in scope and someday soon, Nigerian leaders will become fully accountable to the people. So please join me in raising a toast for Nigeria @56, a nation where the best has not happened and where the worst seems not have happened either!

BASIS FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Our economy is in recession following negative GDP growth in the last two quarters of 2016, -0.36% & -2.06% in Q1 & Q2 respectively. Inflation seems to be galloping reaching 17.5% in July. Interest rates remain high nevertheless as the CBN struggles to contain the galloping inflation, maintaining the MPR at 14%. Much of the inflation is driven by the steep depreciation or devaluation of the Naira against foreign currencies, especially the US Dollar. Over the independence holidays, the US dollar exchanged for 475 Naira in the parallel foreign exchange market.
The acute shortage in foreign exchange which largely precipitated the fall in the value of the Naira was caused by the fall in the international oil prices which reduced both the national income and foreign exchange receipts by nearly 50%. Additionally, capital importation into the country has been on the decline since 2014, dropping from a high of $21.32B in 2013 to $9.4B in 2015 and a paltry $2 billion in 1st half of 2016, further worsening the scarcity.
As we speak the economy remains in dire stress. If you are not losing your job, your salary is late in coming (some many months); if you are not closing your factory or business, your sales and profitability have dropped significantly. If you are a house wife, your feeding allowance can no longer allow you any allowance to manoeuvre. Nobody is exempted from the effect of the recession. Even my pastor is complaining. If we do not take serious actions, we may recede further into depression. So what’s rather the way forward?
1. MASSIVELY RAMP UP PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES
At the core of the recession is decline in productivity. To reverse it therefore we must quickly ramp up productivity. To achieve this we must put capital to work through extensive and intensive public sector capital and social sector spending. Hence the government must find creative ways to fund the 6.06 trillion 2016 budget. If revenue shortfalls persist or intensify, then we must borrow fiercely and if borrowing is slow or becoming difficult, then let us sell poor performing assets and create new assets.
2. SINGLE-MINDED FOCUS ON AGRICULTURE & MANUFACTURING
The lowest hanging opportunity for Nigeria to ramp up productivity and reduce unemployment is to increase agricultural productivity through a harmonization of the several programs and initiatives started with the Agricultural Transformation Agenda of the former, Akinwumi Adesina and the Green Alternative Roadmap of Audu Ogbe, current minister of agriculture. There is the need to promote commercial agriculture and develop the value chain.
Next is the linkage to manufacturing and all forms of value addition. Here the directive by the CBN to the banks that 60% of forex should be preferentially allocated to the manufacturing sector must be enforced.
3. COURT INVESTMENTS AS OUR LIVES DEPEND ON IT
It may well be. Let us create an enabling environment that will make Nigeria a preferred investment destination. Dismantle all the roadblocks and deliberately make it easy to do business in Nigeria. Take actions to boost confidence in the economy. We should also provide incentives to the investors- domestic and foreign to attract increased investment-tax holidays, deferred taxation, infrastructure deficit tax reliefs, export expansion grants, etc. In addition to agriculture and manufacturing, let us motivate investment in infrastructure, education and healthcare. Additionally, let us find ways to attract more home remittances and investment into the economy by the Nigerian Diaspora.
4. LIBERALIZE ACCESS TO FINANCE
Make it extremely easy for businessmen and investors to access funds in the economy at single digit interest rates. Simplify the existing funding programs from CBN, BOI, Agric Bank, Infrastructure Bank and other such financing institutions. Offer longer tenures and get existing loans to commercial banks restructured under the intermediation and supervision of the CBN.
5. ADOPT A STRATEGIC STABLE POLICY ENVIRONMENT
Let us bring stability to Nigeria’s policy environment by adopting strategic policy development options. Let us create a uniting vision and develop long term strategies that have been well thought through. Such policies must then be given time to mature before contemplating change. Also we must avoid the temptation to reinvent the wheel. It is safer and cheaper to adopt global best standards and tested policy options that have universal application. Much time is lost with wrongheaded experimentation.
6. CREATE A UNITED NATION OF LAW & ORDER
Let our laws be respected by all and be enforced at all levels. Every infringement of the law must be punished on an even keel. No exceptions. Kill impunity of every type. Fight corruption in PDP & APC; in the Executive, Legislature and Judiciary, in the public and private sectors, in the governmental and non- governmental sectors lawfully. Restructure the Country and Give every Nigerian equal rights and stop discriminations, and favouritism. The importance of this in boosting confidence and restoring our economy to sustainable growth seems to be poorly appreciated by the government.
7. MAKE NIGERIA SAFE
Security of lives and property must become the primary responsibility of the government. It looks to me that fighting Boko Haram and the militants is the only security challenge the government has. Nigerian government must first show that it values the life of every Nigerian before asking Nigerians to show heroic patriotism. We must reinvent our security apparatus and architecture. The current crime rate is both anti people and anti- investment.
8. AGGRESSIVELY CUT WASTE
Our system is still brimming with inefficiency, our public service unwieldy and of low productivity. Cost of running the bureaucracy and maintaining political office holders is prohibitive. Our official contingents to international meetings- needful and needless remain embarrassingly high. States that cannot pay salaries still hire private planes for their governors. A surgical operation is highly indicated to enable us direct more resources to critical infrastructure and social services.
At 56, Nigeria is a laggard. Countries that were at the same level or even below us in 1960 have largely overtaken us – Malasysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Turkey, Algeria, Morroco, etc. Even post conflict nations like Rwanda, Vietnam and South Africa have left us behind in several global indices. Also, our competitors like Ghana, Kenya and Egypt are moving at faster pace along several indices.
Truly our economy is in bad shape largely due to missed opportunities of yesterday and poor policy options of today. Behind all these though, has been the glaring leadership deficit we have contended with. Certainly God loves Nigeria beyond measure. But we must reciprocate this love by humbling ourselves, repenting of our sins and forsaking all of our evil ways. Sin is a reproach to any nation. Only a righteous leadership that is determined to truly unite the different ethnic groups that inhabit this country will lead Nigeria to achieve its manifest destiny.
Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa