President Buhari’s midterm report: Not so inspiring
President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) has been in office exactly two years now: thus he is at the midpoint of his four year term. It is therefore an opportune time to appraise his performance.
When PMB was campaigning for office, he made several promises which he has either denied or has found that they are untenable. For example, he promised to make the naira equal to the dollar within his first year in office. He has found that this is not possible. He promised to pay all unemployed youths a monthly stipend N5000. He has denied this, adjusting it to say he would employ some of them using the N-Power programme. So in evaluating PMB’s performance, we will not bother with his promises. We may even not bother with the manifesto of the ruling party, APC. We are doing this because it has become clear that nobody should really take what politicians say or promise during campaigns seriously.
PMB came to power based essentially on the allure of his character and the very strong and successful de-marketing of President Good luck Jonathan by the APC campaign machinery. The people were enchanted by the “change” slogan and refused to pay attention to all the red flags that were raised by the opposition.
So, we are just going to do this appraisal by comparing and contrasting. We will look at 6 critical issues and measure what the situation was when he assumed power and what the situation is today.
1) Economy
By the time PMB took office on the 29th of May 2015, the economy was beginning to face some serious challenges. The oil prices crashed in the international market by mid-2014 and this affected National income. 2015 ended with a GDP growth of 2.7%, declining from 5.94%in 2014. This worsened in 2016 as we had four consecutive quarters where the economy contracted and at the end of 2016 we had a GDP growth of -1.52%. Thus 2016 was a full year of recession. As we write, the economy contracted again in the first quarter of 2017 by -0.52%. Thus, we are technically still in recession.
The government has tried to tackle this economic recession by trying to manage demand, banning 41 products from importation, restricting availability of foreign exchange and allocating same to specific sectors of the economy. These were efforts to reduce forex outflow.
These measures did not achieve the intended purposes and instead the value of the naira took a precipitous fall. From about 200 naira to the dollar when PMB took over the value deteriorated to about 520 naira to the dollar in the parallel market early this year.
All efforts to persuade the government to allow the value of the naira to be market driven fell on deaf ears. About June last year, the government devalued the naira from 197 to 297 to the US dollar and has artificially kept it at 305 to the dollar at the official exchange market. Even the pressure to fully deregulate the downstream petroleum sector has been resisted up till date. Inflation has risen doubling from 9% in 2015 to 18.7% in 2016.
It must be acknowledged that since 2017 the government has begun to adopt more liberal economic policies. Supply of foreign exchange to the forex market has increased substantially and with the opening of several windows, there has been a sustained effort to improve the exchange rate of the naira in the parallel market. Nevertheless, we still have multiple exchange rates.
Importation of capital which declined from $9.4 Billion in 2015 to $5.12 Billion in 2016 is beginning to improve in 2017 as the government allows the naira to find its level. Finally the launch of the National Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (NERGP) of the government shows the direction the government wants to take the economy, henceforth.
In summary the National economy has worsened in the last two years in all facets of economic measurement, but some improvement is being experienced, however as at the midpoint of PMB’s term, the economy is worse than it was in May 2015.
2) quality of life
MOST Nigerians have experienced a drop in the quality of their lives in the last two years. Unemployment spiked at 31% at the end of 2016 as against 25% at the end of 2014.Because of the recession, many companies have either reduced operation or closed down completely throwing more people into unemployment. Those who have jobs receive their salaries late, some have six months of salaries and pension arrears. There has not been any significant improvement in supply of electricity all over the country, though some parts of Lagos have seen some improvement,
Water supply is not much improved, neither is healthcare. The country is just emerging from a very severe meningitis epidemic. Indeed misery index moved from 31% in 2015 to 49% in 2016. Nevertheless it has been reported that Nigerian’s life expectation has increased from 54 to 57 years.
3) Security
It has been reported that Boko Haram as a major security challenge for Nigeria has been brought under control. Nigerians are in agreement that the menace of Boko Haram is much less today than it was by May 2015. But security challenges in Nigeria go beyond Boko Haram insurgency. Armed robbery and kidnapping have worsened in the country. The new security craze in the country is the militant Fulani herdsmen who have made a sport of sporadic attacks on farming communities in the north central, south west, south east and south south regions of the country. These attacks have taken unusual regularity since PMB came to power and has remained largely unchecked.
4) Anticorruption
PMB has gone against members of the opposition party and past government officials with vehemence and vengeance. A lot has been revealed as to how PDP funded their 2015 electioneering campaigns. Many past ministers and other government officials are either in detention or are facing trials in the court for corruption charges, no one has yet been convicted. Many have been arrested and re arrested.
The treasury single account (TSA) has been a major attempt to help stop leakages of national income. Though it has the side effect of sterilizing funds which should be helping to oil the economy but it has helped to bring some sanity into government revenue.
Otherwise those who deal with government say not much else is happening. The procurement abuses and other corruptive malfeasance still are ongoing in the ministries, departments and agencies of government (MDAs). In the larger society, outside the “change starts with me campaign” not much is happening. Our corruption perception index has only slightly improved.
5) Public service delivery
The Lagos international airport remains a sorry sight in term of experience of arriving passengers. Some good job was done in Abuja and for the first time, government delivered the reconstruction of the Abuja runway within the advertised time.
Elsewhere, public service delivery remains depressing. Neither the immigration nor the customs is doing a better job.
Healthcare delivery remains perfunctory and our health statistics remain depressing. Not much change has happened to our public service delivery but it must be recognized that the government has begun a major effort to improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria. But it is still early days and sustainable results are yet to manifest.
6) National unity and cohesion
There is indisputable evidence that the nation has become more disunited since the coming of PMB.From his decision to “reward” those who voted for him and to “punish” those who didn’t, PMB has shown a very visible bias in the appointments he has made in the last 2 years. The Igbo of the south east feel discriminated against and this has helped to fuel the resurgence of the Biafra agitation. Many members of the indigenous people of Biafra (IPOB) have been killed in cold blood by security officers.
The Niger Delta people have also been unhappy with the way things were happening and this led to the emergence of the new militant group – AVENGERS who almost crippled crude oil production and exportation. But the government has recently taken steps that seemed to have eased tensions in the Niger Delta, allowing the recovery of oil production and shipment.
The Middle Belt people have become major targets of the armed Fulani herdsmen who also have caused disaffection in the other parts of the southern Nigeria. So much destabilization of the National cohesion has been achieved by the Fulani herdsmen who act as if they fear nobody or respect no laws. All over Nigeria the call for restructuring the Nation has taken a new intensity. Certainly the Nation is more divided today than it was two years ago.
Conclusion
It is clear that overall, the country is in a worse situation today than it was two years ago. The drastic fall in oil price has been a major instigator of the economic problems of the country but there is no doubt that the delay in constituting the cabinet, the apparent slow speed of taking decisions and the wrong-headed economic policies adopted by the federal government in the first fifteen months of the regime helped to worsen the situation.
In the critical dimension of the economy, quality of life, public service delivery and even the rule of the law, the country has not fared much better. Yes! Some significant progress has been made to counter the Boko haram but other security issues remain. True, the anticorruption campaign has achieved a higher level of consciousness among the people, the results are yet mixed and looks limited in scope. But a major area where we have retrogressed in the last two years is in the area of national unity and cohesion. Overall then, my verdict in a ‘C’ for effort and a ‘D’ for result.
There is however hope that if the current moves and momentum being generated in the last few months of 2017, especially the faithful implementation of the NERGP, there may be significant changes and improvement in the scores at the end of 2018 and 2019.
Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa