Lets have an “Atikulated” plan

Following the emergence of Atiku Abubakar at the keenly contested presidential primaries of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) two weeks ago, he has moved quickly to start building a coalition that has former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Very quickly after that, he picked the former governor of Anambra State Peter Obi as his running mate for the February 2019 elections.

While all these are good for the optics, it does not diminish our stark reality, which is, whoever wins the next general election will have serious economic and political crisis to deal with. Indeed, I recently wrote that four issues would dominate the campaign, because they represent, in broad terms, the challenges facing the country. As suspected, the number one challenge is the continuing economic fragility in the country.
Since the last election, the highest quarterly growth rate recorded was 2.84% in the third quarter of 2015, and the country endured a painful 5-quarter economic recession, followed by a tepid recovery. Following this, the incoming government has a very serious and potentially distabilising twin problems of unemployment and poverty. Indeed, a recent Brookings report, authored by Homi Kharas, Kristofer Hamel, and Martin Hofer, all associates of the World Data Lab, found that Nigeria has overtaken India to become the country with the largest population of people living in extreme poverty. We therefore need an economic plan to reduce poverty in the long term, and not based on trader moni.
The incoming president will also have to fight corruption. The background here is that President Muhammadu Buhari won his 2015 elections largely on the back of his perceived integrity and his ability to deal with corruption. He has followed up this perception by aggressively pursuing those the government thinks are corrupt, especially those in opposition. And in the last two weeks, they have ramped up the rhetoric on corruption given the perception Nigerians have about the PDP presidential candidate on corruption. There is also a list of 50 names that are not allowed to travel on account of corruption cases, but without the name of the Atiku Abubakar.
I reckon though that the approach towards dealing with corruption should be beyond the executive orders and noises on corruption made by this administration. I hope we can have a plan that deal with corruption through the reform of the oil and gas industry in relation to licencing, joint ventures, production and downstream activities, the reform of the Land Use Act, have a process of full disclosure and public registration of properties in the country, end the high level of informality of the bureau de change to deal with the storage of corruption proceeds, and provide right policies and environment in the banking system that ensures heavy fines for the promotion of corruption. That is how you deal with corruption and this government has not made any attempt at reforms to deal with these.
Third, there is no doubt that the country needs progress on economic and political reforms. As it is, Nigeria’s political and economic spaces are too tight. So, although there is no clear nationwide definition or agreement on the nature and description of the structural changes required, the common theme is devolution of powers from Abuja to the states within the federation. I will argue that the basis should be on providing the states with powers to create economic incentives within the states, be competitive, and have differences in approach that is based on local peculiarities.The debate and attention on this issue requires elevation following recent escalation of insecurity, and poor economic conditions that is exacerbating poverty.
Finally, we need a security plan. President Buhari, as a former army general, won over the electorates in 2015 also because they thought he was better placed to solve the many security challenges facing the country. However, while Boko Haram has been slightly weakened in the past three years, a bloodier conflict has erupted in the Middle Belt in the form of violent attacks on many communities, largely by herdsmen. Nigeria does need a comprehensive plan on internal security.
In addition to these critical issues, it is important to remind whoever is going to be President that some key problems on the economy are brewing and will have greater implications after the elections. After the elections in 2019, three issues will become urgent. The rising national debt will have severe implications for fiscal policy and expenditure after the general elections in 2019. The next government will also have to deal with the issue of fuel subsidies. Since the rise in the price of crude oil last year, the Nigerian government has started to pay subsidies on petroleum products in order to maintain the fuel pump price at N145. The decision to raise the price of fuel, liberalise the downstream sector, or be transparent about the level of subsidies will emerge after the elections. Third, and in the power sector, the government has stalled on the multi-year tariff order (MYTO) that seeks to ensure a cost reflective electricity pricing. This is imposing serious economic strain on the power sector chain.
In conclusion, I will argue that we have seen all that President Muhammadu Buhari has to offer. It is clear that President Buhari will not continue in office next year by carrying out structural reforms, nor institute state police. He will also not reform the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), nor liberalise the oil sector, remove subsidy or allow very flexible pricing in the power sector. We also know that he will continue to be ambivalent about herdsmen and farmers clashes in the Middle Belt. To deal with all these issues and more, we therefore need, very urgently, an Atikulated plan.

Ogho Okiti