Is $50 Oil The New Normal?
Oil markets have had a quiet end to the week, with an uneventful OPEC meeting concluding without any recommendations regarding further production cuts. The recent climb in prices appears to have come to an end, with WTI sitting comfortably at $50.
Last week, oil markets have had a quiet end, with an uneventful OPEC meeting to consider the possibility of extending the production cuts beyond 2018, concluding on Friday without any recommendations regarding further production cuts, according to some industry observers.
The recent uptick in oil prices will provide OPEC members with a bit of confidence as they sort out their next steps, but pitfalls remain for 2018. “The bull run in the oil market is running out of steam as unease builds” Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates, told Reuters
While oil markets did not react too negatively to the lack of news, all eyes will be on OPEC as the production cut deal nears it’s agreed upon deadline.
To Nigeria however the event eventful as she had another extension granted her in respect oil production output ceiling thereby raising hope of her recovering fully from the economic recession from which she has just marginally exited recently.
The meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC and Non OPEC Countries ended in Vienna on Friday afternoon endorsing Nigeria’s position that the exemption granted it at the November 2016 Ministerial Conference and extended by the May Ministerial Conference should be sustained until it stabilizes its crude oil production.
Industry watchers had expressed fears that because her crude oil production has recently hit an average of 1.8 million barrels and about 500,000 barrels of condensates thereby making the total oil production to hit 2.3 million barrels per day the meeting would ask her to put a cap on her production.
This steady improvement in some quarters is seen to be contributing significantly to global oil glut which has tremendously affected the price of the commodity on a downward trend.
Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, who led Nigeria’s delegation to the meeting had argued that although Nigeria’s production recovery efforts have made some appreciable progress since October last year, Nigeria is not yet out of the woods.
He noted that even though Nigeria hit 1.802 million barrels per day in the month of August that was not enough justification for a call by some countries for Nigeria to be brought into the fold.
Kachikwu emphasized that Nigeria, as one of the older members of OPEC will continue to work for the good of the Organization and its member countries, respecting whatever agreements and resolutions are collectively made.
He stated that Nigeria will be prepared to cap its crude production when it has stabilized at 1.8 million barrels per day.
Kachikwu said that although Nigeria is not a member of the 5 nation Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, he had gladly accepted the invitation of the co-chairs of the Committee and the OPEC Conference President to attend the meeting because he believed that the committee was doing a good job and needed to be support and also to clarify Nigeria’s position on its crude oil production.
The meeting noted that overall compliance by OPEC and Non OPEC participating Countries to the Agreement on crude oil production cut for the month of August was 116 per cent, the highest since the agreement came into effect on January 2017.
It further noted that the objectives of the Accord were steadily being achieved with the gradual draw-down of inventories by nearly 50 per cent since the agreement came into effect.
It is good news for the Nigerian economy as the price of crude oil stood at $54.59 per barrels
Her external reserve hit s about $33 billion last month’s no thanks to the uninterrupted crude oil production for that period.
This development is no doubt a big boost to Nigeria, a country whose economy depends solely on crude oil as major source of foreign exchange earnings. The budget bench mark was put at $44.5 per barrels.
The country recent exit from the recession has been a as a result of steady rise in the price of the commodity and cessation of hostilities from the Niger Delta militants that have stopped breaking pipelines and allow the crude production to grow steadily.
Meanwhile the EIA has reported another significant drawdown in gasoline stocks, which is in part due to the lingering refinery outages in Texas, but also because demand is proving to be robust. U.S. gasoline stocks are now well within the five-year range, and globally, OECD refined product stocks are closing in on five-year averages.
Refineries around the world are going to need to pick up the pace, which means crude drawdowns should be forthcoming. “If OPEC is really still willing to commit to extending production cuts, that gives this market some room to test the upside here,” Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Wealth Management, told Bloomberg.
In preparation for its IPO next year, Saudi Aramco is stepping up its oil trading arm, buying and selling oil produced outside of Saudi Arabia. Crude marketing and refined product trading will fall under the same unit, Bloomberg reports.
“We’ll keep selling our own oil as normal, and we want to get into trading third-party crude,” Ibrahim Al-Buainain, who will head the expanded unit, told Bloomberg. Aramco is hoping to get into a business that the international oil majors are already involved in.
Olusola Bello with agency report