Achieving energy self-sufficiency in West Africa (I)

Ghana anticipates it will soon produce more power than it needs and become energy self-sufficient. In anticipation for this future, the country has reached an agreement with the World Bank to rationalise the addition of the new plants.

At his last state address before he left office, former President John Mahama indicated that Ghana will soon be an energy self-sufficient country.

He said this will be after some more domestic gas come on stream. “With the expectation of more domestic gas from the TEN and Sankofa fields, Ghana is entering into an era of energy self-sufficiency,” local media quoted the president as saying.

“Indeed the warning signals have started sounding about the danger of over-capacity and excess redundancy in our power sector.”

“It has taken a lot of hard work and effort fast-tracking the deployment of emergency plants and speeding up the completion of on-going plants ensured that we added more than 800megwatts of power over an 18 month period,” the president said.

Mahama said the only challenge Ghana will face will be the excess production of power. He said because his government has anticipated such challenges, they have reached an agreement with the World Bank to rationalise the addition of the new plants.

But 1,075 kilometres away in Nigeria, the problem of power is huge. While 12 power stations could not produce electricity during off-peak period during the holidays due to gas constraints, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) October operations report show that 43.54 percent of gas produced was either re-injected, used as upstream fuel gas or flared.

The Nigeria Electricity Supply Industry, NESI, citing statistics from the National Control Centre, Osogbo, stated that Afam IV-V, Geregu Gas, Alaoji National Integrated Power Project (NIPP), and Olorunsogo Gas plants could not produce a single megawatt (MW) on December 25, 2016.

Others that could not produce a single megawatt (MW) on the same day, include Odukpani NIPP, Okpai, Ibom Power, ASCO, AES, Omoku, Rivers NIPP and Gbarain power plants.

Due to gas constraints, 3,000 megawatts of the Nigeria’s power generation capacity remain idle. Nigeria generates over 70 per cent of its electricity from gas-fired power plants, while output from hydro-power plants makes up about 30 per cent of total generation.

NNPC October operations report say out of the 215.43 BCF of gas produced, a total of 121.63 BCF of gas was commercialized comprising of 29.29 BCF and 92.34 BCF for the domestic and export market respectively.

This translates to an average daily supply of 945.00 mmscfd of gas to the domestic market and 2,978.80 mmscfd of gas supplied to the export market.

This implies that 56.46 percent of the total gas produced was commercialized while the balance of 43.54 percent was re-injected, used as upstream fuel gas or flared.

Gas flare rate was 10.49 percent for the month of October 2016 i.e. 728.70 mmscfd compared with average gas flare rate of 9.36 percent i.e. 669.68 mmscfd for the period November 2015 to October 2016 reports the NNPC.

Worse still, the agencies charged with guaranteeing energy stability does not seem to work in cohesion.

“When government came up with this policy (National Gas Policy), we felt that so many things need to be addressed, especially having a synergy between the Ministries of Power, Petroleum Resources and Nigerian Gas Company. They are working at cross purposes and none understand what the other is doing,” said Chuks Nwani, energy law and vice president Powerhouse International Limited.

This only highlights the enormity of the challenges in Nigeria’s power sector indicating that energy self-sufficiency is still a mirage. Nigeria’s is Africa’s biggest crude oil producer but it does not refine enough crude for domestic consumption hence relies on imported refined products.

The country’s government-run refineries are in a state of comatose. A recent report by the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, (NEITI) puts average capacity utilisation of Nigerian refineries at 8.55 percent in 21 months.

The report states that the refineries did not process crude oil at all in seven out of the 21 months under review. “Consolidated capacity utilisation of the refineries was above 20 percent only in August 2015 (24.08 percent),” the report states.

Realistic ambition or pipe dream?

Experts say it is really difficult for a country to achieve 100 percent energy sufficiency, as no country has enough sources of energy. Worse still, in many countries, the chief energy sources are unsustainable or pose danger to the environment leading to moves to diversify.

It is for this reason; every country depends on multiple sources of energy to fulfill its needs. Meanwhile there are countries that are making giant strides towards achieving energy security.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that the United States of America will be energy independent by 2035. The country’s electricity sector is almost self-sufficient.

Some countries have found a route to energy self-sufficiency by increasing adoption of renewable energy technologies. According to the IEA, Iceland plans to become energy independent by 2050 through deploying 100 per cent renewable energy.

Other countries are also ramping electricity generation from different sources. Nuclear power generates 78 percent of France’s electricity, and renewables accounts for 82 percent of Brazil’s power. Germany and China are also advancing renewable energy adoption.

Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, said that of the world’s 195 countries, very few are truly self-sufficient.

“Even energy-rich countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Brazil and Canada which are well endowed in hydrocarbons import some of their energy in the form of refined petroleum products due to insufficient refining capacity.

Luft stated that with some effort and investment in new refineries, this dependency can be eliminated, but most countries are not that fortunate.

“Of the world’s top ten economies, only two, Brazil and Canada, can theoretically reach self-reliance. The rest — China, Japan and Germany to name a few — are poor in resources in relation to their needs and their dependency on energy imports is growing by leaps and bounds.

“This means that as long as hydrocarbons dominate both our electricity and transportation systems, most nations will never be able to achieve self-sufficiency and will continue to rely on the global energy trading system.”

Some other countries are ramping up activities geared in the short-run to reduce their energy dependence on other nations if not totally satisfy their national energy demand.

In recent times, India is increasing capacity to harness its energy sources and reduce its dependency on Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC.

The Indian government is forecasting that it will exceed the renewable energy targets set in Paris in 2015 by nearly half and three years ahead of schedule.

A draft 10-year energy blueprint published in December predicts that 57 percent of India’s total electricity capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2027. The Paris climate accord target was 40 percent by 2030.

The concluding part will focus on what path the West African sub-region should take to increase reliance on its own energy sources and achieve possible energy sufficiency.

ISAAC ANYAOGU