These countries can still buy oil from Iran after sanctions

Despite the hard-line rhetoric, eight countries including United States of America’s allies South Korea and Japan, as well as India will keep buying Iranian oil after November 05 on waivers from the U.S.

Concerns that a total ban would spur a further rally in the price of crude led Iran’s biggest oil customers (all in Asia) to seek for sanction waivers to allow them to continue buying some of Iranian oil.

Oil prices rallied this year to a four-year high above $85 per barrel on fears that Washington may want to cut Iranian oil exports to zero.

South Korea and Japan have received waivers along with India, which rely heavily on Iranian supplies, Bloomberg reported.

India, the second-biggest importer of Iranian oil is cutting back, while signaling that it would not shut down the trade completely. And India’s government is not just buying crude from Iran. It is also preparing to buy missile defenses from Russia, another sanctionable offense in Washington’s eyes.

It is unclear how much crude those eight countries would be allowed to buy from Iran, whose oil exports have plummeted from an average of more than 2.5 million barrel per day in recent weeks, Reuters reported.

“The waivers granted to these eight countries show that the market needs Iran’s oil and it cannot be pulled out of the market. I don’t know whether these waivers are permanent or temporary” state TV quoted Ali Kardor, Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister as saying.

However, Goldman Sachs said it expects Iran’s crude exports to fall to 1.15 million bpd by the end of the year. During a previous round of sanctions at the start of the decade, Iranian oil exports declined at times to below 1 million bpd.

Among other countries closely connected to Iran’s energy system is Iraq, which imports gas via a pipeline. The United Arab Emirates imports large amounts of Iranian fuel oil to power ships and Egypt imports oil from Iran from the Sumed pipeline.

The biggest oil importer from Iran, China is a wild card in Trump’s calculations. It is a competitor, not amenable to the kind of pressures that can be applied to allies. Beijing has rejected the U.S. request to stop buying Iranian crude, Chinese officials say, though it has agreed not to ramp up purchases.

Although, a Chinese official told Reuters that discussions with the U.S. government about waivers were ongoing and that a result was expected over the next couple of days.

“We think Trump will agree to China importing some volumes, similar to the treatment that India and South Korea receive” Clayton Allen of Height Securities said in a note to Reuters on Friday.