India’s import of Nigeria crude oil to reach 116.8 m barrels in 2014

India’s import of Nigeria crude oil is projected to grow by 26 percent to reach 116.8 million barrels in 2014 all things being equal as shown by BusinessDay Research and Intelligent Unit (BRIU) in their current edition of Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Report yet to be RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC.

According to 2013 World Oil Outlook, a report released by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), India’s demand for crude oil is to grow by 3 percent from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2013 to 3.9 million barrels per day in 2014, with Nigeria accounting for 8.2 percent of India’s import in 2014, this is equivalent to 0.32 mbpd or 116.8 million barrel for the year under review.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) quarterly petroleum information shows that in the first three quarters of 2013, India had the top spot of Nigeria crude oil export with importation of 73.12 million barrels, equivalent of 13 percent of Nigeria total export during the period.

We expect that when the last quarter report for 2013 is released India’s import figure should be as high as 92.49 million barrels. This implies that India import from Nigeria will increase by 26 percent to 116.8 million barrels by 2014 all other factors remaining constant. BRIU calculations show that Nigeria’s share of India import will increase from 8 percent in 2014 and 2015 to 10% in 2016.

This position is supported by analysis carried out by energy research firm, Platt, on India.  Platt holds the view that India is the single-largest importer of Nigeria crude. Richard Swann, editorial director of London-based Oil News, a Platts publication, said that “the emergence of India as the largest consumer of Nigerian crude occurred rapidly over the past years”.

The NNPC’s quarterly report shows that India crude oil imported from Nigeria in the first three quarter of 2013 was more than US crude oil imported in the same period by 3.64 million barrels, total Africa import by 11.88 million barrels, total South America by 5.01 million barrels and total Oceanic pacific by 60.84 million barrels.

By: Olowa Peter