Key global oil basins expected to generate 240bn barrels by 2030
A total of 126 key global basins – ranging from mature onshore to frontier ultra-deepwater plays – are expected to generate 240 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) by 2030, according to an analysis by a global energy research company Wood Mackenzie.
A total exploration spend of close to $600 billion in these basins will create over $420 billion in additional value, net of investment, it said, adding “However, success will not be evenly distributed and we believe value will in fact be destroyed in 19 basins at our base price.”
The majority of those with the greatest potential are in deepwater, including the Golden Triangle of Brazil, West Africa and the US Gulf of Mexico.
“However, two onshore basins – Kenya’s North Central Gregory Rift and Colombia’s Llanos Basin – buck the trend and join these regions in our list of top 10 by value creation thanks to relatively low development costs and attractive fiscal terms,” said Wood Mackenzie.
It said relatively low government take is key to significant value creation, especially when volumes are not very large, with its analysis showing that around half of the top 20 basins have a government take at or below 70 percent.
In terms of yet-to-find volumes, three giant gas-prone basins – Mozambique Rovuma, the Russian East and West Barents Sea – appear in the top 10, yet none are outstanding in terms of value creation due to current challenges facing gas commercialisation, particularly in an Arctic environment.
Exploration spend is expected to be highest in the US Gulf of Mexico due to the variety of opportunities and open business environment on offer, according to the report.
“But although outlay is greatest in expensive deepwater plays, we believe the most active plays in terms of number of wells will be onshore – in Colombia, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina and Oman.”
In September 2013, Wood Mackenzie had said there were nearly 1.4 trillion boe reserves around the globe in conventional undeveloped oil and gas fields. This includes nearly 1.1 trillion boe of ‘technical reserves’ – a term Wood Mackenzie uses for reserves for which there are no firm development plans in place.
According to the report, the region with the most valuable portfolio of good technicals overall is the Middle East, followed closely by Latin America and North America.
The value for the Middle East was put at $185 billion; Latin America $149 billion; North America $132 billion; Africa $125 billion; Russia & Caspian $78 billion; Asia Pacific $67 billion and Europe $24 billion.
Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, has one of the world’s largest oil reserves. There is significant heavy oil yet to be tapped in the Benin basin, which is one of the world’s largest heavy oil belts in the world after Canada and Venezuela.
The majority of reserves in the country are found along the country’s Niger River Delta and offshore in the Bight of Benin, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Bight of Bonny. Current exploration activities are mostly focused in the deep and ultra-deep offshore with some activities in the Chad basin, located in the northeast of the country.
Analysts have stressed the need for more efforts to be geared towards spurring exploration activities, particularly on new frontiers and the deep and ultra-deep offshore basins.
FEMI ASU