Nigeria’s roadmap to end militancy looks great, but needs work

Nigeria’s minister of state for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu recently unveiled an ambitious 20-point agenda to tackle militancy in the Niger Delta which captures all the major issues militating against resolution of the protracted dispute in the region.

A review of the agenda shows that key initiatives in the policy includes engagements in peaceful dialogue, ramp up investments to drive economic activity, improve capacity of security forces to resolve criminal element of the militancy struggle and implement a massive infrastructural programme.

Other initiatives include improving the capacity of states in the region to harness potentials, ensure environmental pollution is controlled and enhance capacity building initiatives.

The proposed programme represents the first attempt by any government to develop a coherent roadmap for the development of the Niger delta beyond mere token action. It is difficult to deny the good intentions that underlie this policy however in Nigeria good intentions alone have not guaranteed success of government policy.

Often what has been lacking is the political will to see through fine policy initiatives as successive government faced with economic or political challenges easily renege on commitments to see projects through.

Another challenge is ensuring policy continuity after a government leaves power at the next election cycle. Usually, the best way to guarantee policy continuity is to turn it into a law with a provision that will ensure undisrupted funding.

A massive policy such as this developed for the Niger Delta would have a better chance of success if the government consulted the people and involved them in policy formulation.

Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria’s vice president and Ibe Kachikwu have been engaging with the local traditional rulers and various interest groups in the Niger Delta and this has resulted in relative calm in the region.

Sustained interaction would need to be maintained to ensure continued support of the initiatives, while also carrying the local people along in the implementation. A good initiative that no one wants is the same as flawed one.

Nigeria’s economy cannot afford a sustained militancy campaign as was seen in 2016 where oil output fell to about 1.2million barrels per day. The country did not earn income of over $50billion due to declining production. There was suboptimal utilisation of refineries, thousands of jobs were lost and the economy dived south.

“To prevent a reoccurrence of what happened in 2016, government is getting very bullish about the problem,” says Kachikwu.

The oil sector’s woes was compounded by a decline in oil prices by nearly 60 percent on the back of oversupply by oil producers who were keen to claw back market share, like Iran emerging from sanctions and Saudi Arabia who seemed to want to prove that no country has a monopoly to the ability to drown the world in oil.

Kachikwu’s 20 point agenda include engagement and townhall meetings, strengthening inter-agency collaboration, implementing ring-fenced approach among states, collaborate on security issues, support peace and investments, invest in core business focus areas, target provision of 100,000 jobs over the next five years, focus on investments in gas to power, deploy an investment scheme to support incentive for peace.

Others are driving massive civil infrastructure revamp, cleaning up our mess, implement state amnesty programmes, domesticate oil business opportunities, set up Niger Delta development fund, deploy capacity building initiatives, Implement militancy to education initiative, empower youths in the Niger Delta by creating opportunities, strengthen partnerships between federal government and states, support equity & justice (no one left behind), implement policing for peace.

ISAAC ANYAOGU