Novatek’s performance shows legroom for independents in global gas market
Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer has surpassed state-run Gazprom PJSC, the world’s biggest natural gas producer in market capitalisation, which shows that Nigeria’s indigenous independent gas companies have legroom to create competition.
Novatek, a privately held and run gas producer and Gazprom, a state-run gas producer present another instance, which suggests that government will do better playing regulatory roles, create enabling business environment and allow the invisible hand of demand and supply to govern market processes.
In 2008, the difference in Gazprom’s and Novatek’s market capitalisation exceeded $340 billion. Now, both are valued around $50 billion: Novatek was even worth slightly more as of August 06. If you look at the numbers, this makes little sense. Gazprom’s vast natural gas reserves are close in size to North and South America’s combined, eight times that of Novatek, according Bloomberg Intelligence. The reasons alluded were that Gazprom has not been run based on pure market principles.
“Gazprom should be worth significantly more,” said Rollo Roscow, a London-based analyst at Schroders Plc who manages the 1.1-billion euro ($1.28 billion) International Selections Emerging Europe fund. “Unfortunately, that business is not run for minority shareholders. It is run for the government; it carries out political projects with dubious returns.”
There are instances of successful state-owned and run gas producers, such as Qataris’ Qatargas, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas company.
Nigeria’s NLNG Limited may have achieved more. The company is owned by four shareholders, namely, the Federal Government of Nigeria, represented by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (49 percent); Shell (25.6 percent); Total Gaz Electricite Holdings France (15 percent) and Eni (10.4 percent). The delay in developing Train 7 has been subject to the vagaries of Nigeria’s political environment and policy flip flops.
Tony Attah, the Managing Director of NLNG, has cautioned that the country was losing the competitive space in the LNG global industry due to non-implementation of final investment decision, FID on additional trains, particularly Train 7.
Attah who spoke at a Nigeria International Petroleum Summit, NIPS, held in Abuja, represented by Sadeeq Mai-Bornu, the Deputy Managing Director, said the project has been over-delayed.
“Nigeria started 24 months after Qatar, Qatar now produces 77 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and is the number one LNG supplier in the world, while Nigeria is still on 22 MTPA” Attah said.
Other instances of progress include Australia that is flooding the market and will knock down Qatar to the third or fourth place. In Africa, significant gas finds in excess of 127 trillion cubic feet, TCF in Mozambique has created the potential for another African super player.
Mozambique is expected to become the second-largest exporter of Liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2025, as the country steps up production from 10 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2017 to an envisaged 50 MTPA.
“The real investment opportunity was last year when prices were low; but it is not too late. That is why we need to take the decision on Train 7 now so we can stay within the Top 5 space. The future is gas and NLNG is ready to play. It is time for gas” Attah said.
Novatek’s stock has been gaining as it expands its liquefied natural gas business. The gas producer and distributor is controlled by some notable Russian billionaires and co-owned by France’s Total SA. Leonid Mikhelson is the company’s chief executive officer and owns a quarter of it.
STEPHEN ONYEKWELU