Prospects for West Africa as climate change questions relevance of fossil fuels

A world without fossil fuels, may not be the stated intent of the 195 countries that gathered at the Paris climate change conference (COP21) in December 2015, and adopted the first ever universal legally binding global climate deal, but there is little doubt the thought has crossed their minds.

Tom Burke, in an article for Huffington Post stated “For a long time the fossil fuel industries have lived in a comfort zone. It was built on three key beliefs: the world would always need their products; energy technologies change slowly, governments will not act decisively to tackle climate change.”

The Paris Agreement seems to have put paid to that belief.

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change impact by limiting global warming to well below 2 C. It will enter into force in 2020.

Governments agreed to a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels. They also committed to limit increase to 1.5 C to reduce the risk impacts of climate change. Governments also committed to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.

There were also commitment to meet every 5 years to set more ambitious targets as dictated by current science, report to each other and to the public on how well they are doing to implement their targets and track progress towards the long-term goal through a robust transparency and accountability system.

While these are ambitious targets, the sticking point in past agreements has been getting countries to domesticate the policy provisions by having their legislatures approve them. Also, big business lobbyists give legislatures incentives to encourage inaction.

However, West African countries should not operate under the assumption that the Paris Agreement will go the way of the other 20 protocols that have been signed towards checking climate change. It would be a move as risky as betting the house on the lottery.

For one, the political resolve that gave birth to the Paris Agreement is forged upon the crucible of stern realities. Tsunamis, ozone depletion, acid rains and irrational weather have forced governments and big businesses to take seriously the threat of climate change. This has taken the will out of the voices of dissent.

Unlike the 2009 Copenhagen climate change conference that collapsed into chaos, the Paris Agreement saw political will from the countries. They even made provisions to finance poor nations in order to help them cut emissions and cope with the effects extreme weather.

Kumi Naidoo, executive director of Greenpeace International told the Guardian UK what he thought of the agreement. “It sometimes seems that the countries of the UN can unite on nothing but nearly 200 countries have come together and agreed a deal. The human race has joined in a common cause.”

Another significant fact about the Paris Agreement is that businesses are now urging governments to take urgent action. Burke noted businesses now want governments to move faster to tackle climate change. Other companies such as those making clean energy technologies see huge opportunities in a decarbonising world.

According to United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) global trends in renewable energy investment report for 2014, green energy investments worldwide surged 17 percent to $270 billion at the beginning of 2014 and before the year ran out, it peaked at $339 billion driven mainly by investments in solar and wind energy. 2015 preliminary reports indicate that renewable energy technologies for the first time, attracted more investment globally than fossil fuels!

What is even more significant is that users of oil are now seeking alternatives. The media reported that 13 chief executives from the car industry led by Renault have committed themselves to decarbonising transport over the next ‘two to three decades’. While they anticipate about 2 billion vehicles on the road by 2050, they would not rely on fossil fuels to power them. Electric cars is seeing a revolution by Tesla.

Weaning Africa from fossil fuel

The dip in crude oil prices to less than $30 dollars per barrel is hurting West African economies. Ghana introduced a 30 percent hike in prices of petroleum products in January barely a month after increasing electricity tariffs by 59 percent and water tariffs by 67 percent.

Nigeria even presents a grimier picture with an import dependent economy and crude oil as the country’s key foreign exchange earner. The country ran into troubled waters when crude oil prices fell below $30 and the country’s 2016 budget benchmark was set $38 per barrel. To make a bad problem worse, Nigeria’s apex bank introduced unorthodox methods to curtail the fall of the naira leading to acute shortage of foreign exchange and further weakening the naira to nearly N400/$.  Over half of the value of the stock market has been erased, now the country struggles to pay teachers.

The UNEP report on investments in renewable energies has some of the lowest figures from Africa. But what Africa needs is to, as a matter of national urgency, wean itself away from fossil fuels. South Africa recorded the highest investment of over $5 billion dollars in 2014 far below China’s over $80 billion worth of investments. Egypt and a few other African countries are making significant investments in renewable energy. West African countries have to rethink their engagement with fossil fuels.

West African markets can see billions of dollars’ worth of revenue by adding value to the raw materials in their domain and grow agro allied industries. There is also a critical need for advanced technologies in manufacturing and reduce dependence on foreign imports.

A future unchained to fossil fuels is indeed possible, Africa has to decide if it will follow or be dragged along.

ISAAC ANYAOGU