Security, infrastructure vandalism to undermine 2018 budget

Stakeholders  in  the  oil and  gas  sector have  said the  greatest  threat to realising the objectives of the 2018 budget are  security of personnel and reduction in vandalisation of production and export infrastructure.

 The other factor that could threaten the budget according  to them is the oversupply of the global oil market and lack  of  compliance  to production cuts by OPEC members.

 They however  described the Federal Government daily  projection of 2.3 million  barrels  per day in 2018 budget as over optimistic, but agreed that  the $45  per barrel  price benchmark  was fair enough  given  the fact  that  there are threats of possible  oversupply  in the global  market.

 According to their projections, the price of crude oil would most likely remain within the range of $50 and $55 per barrel for the better part of 2018.

Eddy Wikina,  managing  director  of  Treasure Energy Resources  and  former  External Relations Manger of Shell  Nigeria Exploration and Production (SNEPCO) told BusinessDay  that  the $45 is good for the budget but doubt   if the  country  can achieve the  2.3 million  daily  production.

According to him , the country must always take cognisance  of the threats of  the  Niger Delta militants and   development  in  other parts of the  world, especially  the   penchant  for OPEC members not comply with supply  regulation.

 “If there is global over supply in the market where  would the motivation to produce would 2.3 million barrels come from”, he said. He  urged  the  Federal  Government  to give  incentives  that would allow  investors  to build  refineries and industries  that would turn the   oil  into various petroleum products that  would be useful  in  African Markets.

 In his own reaction, Biodun Adesanya , President of  National Association of  Petroleum Explorationists  (NAPE) said the  greatest  threat to realising the  objectives of the budget is  security of personnel and reduction in vandlisation of production and export infrastructure.

 He said that quick passage of the budget by the national   assembly is important otherwise the budget is feasible.

John Uwajumogu, partner, Transaction Advisory Service, Ernest and Young, said the main challenge the government is going to have that would confront the implementation of the budget would be social economic issues. He urged the government to engaged the communities in oil producing areas as quickly as possible so that they are carried along  on the issues of development and oil production.

 He said the worse that can happened to the country would be for her to experience low oil output and low price again,  as did this year,and this would not be good enough for the economy.

  The government he said can control the production by taking certain actions that would guaranty peace in the  Niger Delta . “I expect the government to dialogue  with communities and other stakeholders”.

A coalition of militant groups from the nine states  of the Niger Delta  have  threatened  to resumed attacks on oil  installations because of their loss of  confidence  in the leadership of the Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum (PANDEF)

The group warned that they would be forced to resume hostilities against oil installations if the Federal Government enters into any discussion or agreement with PANDEF.

PANDEF, led by Chief Edwin Clark, has been leading the process of dialogue with the federal government, over crisis in the Niger Delta.

The coalition of militants, led by the Reformed Niger Delta Agenda (RNDA), after a crucial meeting held along the Benin River, in Delta State, presided over by its leader, Major Johnmark Ezonbi, declared that the PANDEF was structured as an opposition tool of a political party.

In a communiqué issued at the end of their meeting, they lamented the lack of development in the Niger Delta region, in spite of the huge funds that had accrued to the zone.

They advised the Federal Government to enter into fresh talks with the Pan Niger Delta People’s Congress, headed by Pere Charles,  Ayemi Botu and other respected traditional rulers and stake holders in the region, including  Mike Emuh, who is the national chairman of HOSTCOM and  Francis Innegbeniki, representing Edo State.

“The coalition will be forced to resume hostilities in the creek in a well coordinated approach, if the Federal Government enters into any discussion with PANDEF, as the group no longer enjoys the blessings and support of militants stake holders in the region.”