Shell forecasts 60 percent rise in global energy demand by 2050
Royal Dutch Shell has said that global energy demand by 2050 will be 60 percent higher than current levels in its 2015 Sustainability report.
It says this is will be the consequence of world population growth rom current levels of 7 billion to 10 billion by 2050 stating that more than two in three people could be living in cities.
Addressing the impact of increased energy demand, Shell stated that the world must find ways to meet this rising energy demand while reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the effects of climate change.
To achieve the historic Paris Agreement adopted by 195 countries in late 2015, expected to be ratified over the coming year, which established a goal to limit the global temperature rise this century to well below 2 °C, the oil giant believes the world must shift existing energy system to one based on energy sources that are lower-carbon.
The report proposes redesigning economies, communities and lives to thrive on these energy systems as the only way to achieve a net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as early as possible this century if the world is to maintain a world below 2 °C.
It states that in a net-zero emissions world, CO2 emissions would be safely absorbed by the earth’s natural infrastructure – such as forests and oceans – with any remaining emissions safely stored underground by carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Shell believes that while difficult, it could be possible for society to approach net-zero emissions by the end of this century on the assumption that average global temperature increases by of 2–3 °C by 2100.
“A huge part of the challenge,” states the report “is to cut the carbon from the existing fossil fuels that currently make up around 80% of the energy mix.
“Our New Lens Scenarios show that energy needs towards the end of this century will be predominantly met by renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass, with fossil fuels around 25% of the energy mix. “
Perhaps in acknowledgement of a future of energy transition that cannot be wished away, Ben van Beurden, Shell Global Chief Executive Officer, says : “Shell can presently best support the transition to a lower-carbon world by working to reduce carbon in the energy system. We urge countries and industries to make the switch from coal to lower-carbon natural gas.”
Shell publishes a sustainability report every year highlighting the company’s operations and its projections for the future.
Shell’s New Lens Scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in the company for 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment.
The company bases them on plausible assumptions and quantifications, and they are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible.
It says that its scenarios, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
ISAAC ANYAOGU