West Africa crude exports to Asia seen falling to 13-month low

West African crude oil exports to Asia are set to fall to 1.68 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, their lowest since August 2014, shipping data and a survey of traders showed on Wednesday.

Angola, Nigeria and neighbouring countries are expected to export about 28 cargoes to China in September and 15 to India, down from 30 and 25 respectively last month.

Crude flows to Asia have fallen from 2.34 million bpd in April due to seasonal refinery maintenance and lower refining margins as well as fears of
weakening demand growth.

India’s Essar Oil is set to shut its 400,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) Vadinar refinery from mid September for a month.

Also limiting purchases by the sub-continent, Indian refiners are becoming more selective in the grades of oil that they are looking to purchase, making it tougher for sellers of Nigerian crude to sell to the region.

And while exports to China have held up relatively well, many cargoes heading to China are expected to go into storage. Chinese refiners are cutting
output in the face of low margins.

Chinese imports in October are likely to fall further as purchases of Angolan oil have been substantially slower than in recent months, traders said.

The following table shows exports from west African oil producers to Asian consumers in August and September:

    
The following table shows exports from west African oil producers to Asian consumers in August and September:
        
 COUNTRY           SEPTEMBER  BPD     AUGUST    BPD '000s
                   CARGOES    '000s   CARGOES   
 CHINA             28         887     30        919
 INDIA             15         475     25        766
 INDONESIA         5          158     3         92
 TAIWAN            2          63      2         61
 JAPAN             0          0       0         0
 S. KOREA          0          0       0         0
 OTHERS            3          95      0         0
 TOTAL             53         1,678   60        1,838