Will Mozambique become the next Nigeria?

International media organisations reported that at least 80 people have been killed in northern Mozambique since October in multiple attacks carried out by unknown assailants who target oil workers and local populace. This is raising a spectra of concern that the natural gas rich country could be replace Nigeria as the next hotbed for insurgency.

Locals suspected the armed Islamist group as members of Al-Sunna wa Jama’a, but some also say the attackers are “Al-Shabab”, although there are no known links to the Somali group of the same name. They are operating in Cabo Delgado, a gas rich province in Mozambique. Some observers have linked the violence to poverty and the scramble for the region’s underground resources from gemstones and minerals to natural gas according to media reports.

In June, US petroleum company Anadarko placed staff working on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in northern Mozambique under “lock-down” due to the threat from suspected Islamist militants. Anadarko, which is looking to raise a record $14-$15 billion for the plant only said it was monitoring the situation but the violence has continued.

This situation has caused security concerns for companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which plan to develop multibillion dollar natural gas projects in the region.

The group wants Sharia law introduced and comprises Mozambicans, Tanzanians and people from other countries in the region and in order to achieve their objective, they have been killing dozens of people, burning hundreds of houses, and forcing thousands to flee their villages.

Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama is suspected to be getting financing from smuggling goods such as timber, ivory, drugs and rubies, according to findings by researchers.

The mode of operation of the group closely mirrors the threat of Boko haram in north eastern Nigeria where millions of people have been displaced and economic activities mostly farming have been disrupted. In the Niger Delta, there is an on-going threat of militancy but the demands are largely about getting better value for the people who live in communities where crude oil is explored.

Mozambique has no history of Islamist militancy but Nigeria has a long history of Islamists militancy. There is the jihad of the 14th century and in the 1970s there were threats from the Kala Kato and Izala Islamists movements in Nigeria. The Mozambique government has been reluctant to ascribe the attacks to Islamists since only about 18 percent of the 30 million population are Muslims.

Researchers also told Bloomberg that geography contributes to the problem. Mocimboa da Praia, where the attacks started, is 1,800 kilometers (1,118 miles) northeast of Maputo, and Palma, where the offshore gas reserves that Eni, ExxonMobil and Anadarko are developing, is about 80 kilometers north of that.

The same way poverty fuels the conflicts in the Niger Delta and parts of North Eastern Nigeria, many jobless youths in Cabo Delgado where poverty turns deep in the rural areas. Access to benefits from natural resources fuels poverty which further cripples economic activities, this is the vicious cycle African governments with natural resources need to break out from.

ISAAC ANYAOGU