2019: The world is warming up for Nigeria’s next elections

The 2015 general election was conducted under the watchful eye of the world. It was such a high stakes election that the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United Nations weighed in heavily from start to finish to ensure a credible and peaceful presidential election. This was, of course, against the backdrop of apocalyptic predictions of post-election violence and the disintegration of Nigeria. In an unprecedented intervention, President Obama made a direct broadcast to Nigerians, invoking the famous civil-war slogan: “To keep Nigeria one is a task that must be done”!

But, thank God, common sense prevailed. President Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat and congratulated his victorious opponent Muhammadu Buhari. Credit must, of course, go to the dramatis personae, Jonathan and Buhari, foraverting the doomsday scenario. But no one can ignore the pivotal role that the international community played in keeping the politicians on the straight and narrow. Truth is, active domestic participation and international engagement were critical to the success of the 2015 elections. And they will be critical to the success of the 2019 polls.

So far, though, while the domestic arena is abuzz with excitement and anticipation about next year’s elections, the international community has only just started warming up for the elections. But it’s understandable why the world is not as hyped up at this time about next year’s elections as it was about those of 2015. One reason is that, as I said, in 2015, the fear of a post-election violence and possible break-up of Nigeria was so acute and palpable that the outside world could not leave anything to chance and had to get involved so early.

But such apocalyptic imagery is not dogging the 2019 elections. This is largely because, unlike in 2015, next year’s presidential election is devoid of the North-South divide and ethnic tension. The two leading presidential candidates, President Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, are both from the Hausa/Fulani North. If Buhari lost to Atiku or Atiku lost to Buhari, few believe that the North would turn on itself. What’s more, the 2015 elections had set a precedent difficult to reverse. Any loser in a free and fair election would now be expected to concede defeat without a fuss. The diminished ethnic element and the precedent effect of the 2015 elections thus give the outside world some assurance that next year’s elections would not descend into a serious violence, which is why the international community is not as jumpy about the 2019 elections as it was about the 2015 race.

Some have speculated that the US may not, in any case, be as actively engaged in the elections as it was in 2015 because President Trump is more interested in counterterrorism and trade than in democracy and governance. But there is no evidence that the US would turn away if things look like going awry. Indeed, many US organisations are already exploring aspects of the elections, particularly violence. For instance, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) recently published a special report titled “Nigeria’s 2019 elections: change, continuity and the risks to peace”. It interviewed over 200 Nigerians in 8 states and the FCT, asking what they thought might trigger a serious violence in the 2019 elections.

Many respondents identified Boko Haram, the herder-farmer clashes and Muslim-Christian conflict in the North as potential sources of violence during the elections. But, interestingly,the major factor mentioned by most of the respondents was the performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). As the report puts it: “The respondents feared that any regression from the level of performance achieved in 2015 could lead to violence because some would view the failings not as a result of incompetence but as deliberate attempts to frustrate the will of the voters”. The perception is that the Nigerian electorate is now more politically conscious, and have great anticipation for next year’s elections, as well as higher expectations for the INEC. So, notwithstanding that the two main presidential candidates are from the North, rigging could still trigger a serious violence.

But beyond the questions of violence, many global think tanks and governments are busy making conjectures about the possible outcomes of the 2019 elections, assessing the likely winners and losers. In a recent paper titled “Countdown to February 2019: A look ahead at Nigeria’s elections”, researchers at theLondon-based international relations policy think-tank, Chatham House, surveyed the Nigerian political landscape and assessed the prospects of the two main parties, All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in next year’s elections. According to the researchers, Matthew Page and Sola Tayo, both Associate Fellows at the institute, the key factors likely to determine whether APC retains power or risks defeat next year are(1) the degree to which the party remains united behind Buhari’s candidacy and (2) the president’s performance in the last six months of his term. As for the PDP, its chances would depend on (1) the political pedigree and popular appeal of the party’s presidential candidate and (2) its ability to unify against “a well-financed incumbent who retains a strong support base across much of the North”.

Such discussions, permutations and postulations about the 2019 elections are taking place in academic, diplomatic and government circles all over the world.

Recently, about three weeks ago, I was invited to the same Chatham House to participate in what was termed “Scenarios generation roundtable on Nigeria’s elections”. The focus of the roundtable, according to the organisers, was “to consider various outcomes and scenarios following elections in Nigeria next years”, and I was invited as an “external expert” to help produce robust assessments of the likely outcomes and scenarios.

Well, I will not make predictions here about the likely outcomes of next year’s elections, but rather set out briefly the key challenges that I believe the two main parties, APC and PDP and their presidential candidates, face and must overcome to succeed in next year’s elections. First, there is a common challenge that both parties face, and that’s unity. Divided parties rarelywin elections. And going by the crisis that the APC’s state primaries have generated, with most of its governors asking the party’s chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, to resign and accusing some national leaders, such as Bola Tinubu, of fraudulent interference, as Governor Ibikunle Amosun did recently, one must wonder whether the APC can enter next year’s elections as a united party. The earlier defections of Atiku, Bukola Saraki and other members of the R-APC from the APC will inevitably cost the party some states.

The PDP seems more united, with less controversial primaries, but it can do without the rumblings in the Southeast over Atiku’s running mate, Peter Obi, and the alleged mistreatment of the deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, who had to refute speculations about his defection to the APC. These are distractions that PDP doesn’t need close to a general election, particularly in its Southeast base, where it needs enthusiastic rather than lukewarm support.

But party unity apart, the two parties face different challenges. The real challenge for President Buhari is his performance. Of course, Buhari loyalists have been rolling out what they regard as the president’s achievements, most of which, in the words of George Orwell, simply “give an appearance of solidity to pure wind”. According to the Centre for Democracy and Development’s ‘Buharimeter’, “halfway through his first term, Buhari and his government had fulfilled just seven out of his 222 campaign promises and had made no progress at all on a further 96”. How many of the campaign promises would Buhari have fulfilled by the next elections? Truth is, the 2019 elections will be a referendum on Buhari’s performance, and the question for Nigerians would be the same that Ronald Reagan asked Americans when he ran against Jimmy Carter in1980: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

But the fact that Nigerians answer “no” to that question does not mean they would elect Atiku. As I have said previously, PDP cannot win by simply criticising Buhari’s failings. It must offer itself as a credible alternative. Yet, PDP faces a huge image problem. Its sixteen years in power were associated with massive corruption. How can a party that lost power after 16 years of tarnished image regain power just four years later without a massive transformation? Unfortunately, the PDP today is very much the same as the old PDP, especially with the return of its prodigals. The perception of corruption is PDP’s Achilles heel. It does not help that the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku, is, rightly or wrongly, seen, even internationally, as having a corruption perception problem. Be under no illusion, the APC would hypocritically and opportunistically play the corruption card against the PDP, and this would resonate with a lot of people at home and abroad.

But this is partly why the West is lukewarm about next year’s elections.They are not enthused by either main candidate, unlike in 2015 when they were beguiled by Buhari. Now, they see Buhari as an incompetent leader who nevertheless seems serious about fighting corruption and Atiku as a potentially competent leader but who won’t tackle graft. He must confront that perception.

All said, the world cannot ignore Nigeria. It is warming up for next year’s elections if only to ensure everything goes well!

    Olu Fasan