Beware! Politicians are ganging up again. Just for power

Lord Palmerston, the 19th century British foreign secretary and later prime minister, famously said, “Nations have no permanent friends or enemies, they only have permanent interests”. Of course, he was only talking in the context of international relations. But Nigerian politicians are now using the phrase shamelessly as a fig leaf for their value-free, self-interested politics. As a result, party loyalty is so fickle and fluid in Nigeria, with the prevalence of political turncoatism. What’s more, there is a new phenomenon: the ganging up by strange political bedfellows during general elections just to capture power. We saw it in 2015. We are seeing it – again – now, ahead of next year’s elections!

In an electoral democracy, based on the party system, political parties can only survive when they believe in, and stand for, something, and have loyal, rather than fair-weather, adherents. In Europe and much of Africa, political parties have longevity and stability because of their values and the loyalty of their members and leaders.

Nelson Mandela, despite being disappointed with the actions of his successors as leaders of the African National Congress (ANC), once said: “I will join the nearest branch of the ANC in heaven!” Margaret Thatcher, despite her misgivings about the leadership of the Tory party after she left office as prime minister, died as a card-carrying member of the party. But, in Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo publicly tore his membership card of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), under which he was Nigeria’s president for eight years, and did everything to destroy the party and scupper its electoral chances simply because he couldn’t control it!

But you won’t have principled, value-based, honest, responsive and accountable politics and governance when parties are mere vehicles for acquiring power for personal gains. And one way to know that politics in any country is serving the interests of politicians rather than the people is when parties are formed by strange political bedfellows or when politicians and parties gang up opportunistically at elections in pursuit of a shared self-interested objective of just capturing power. This, sadly, is now the trend in the electoral politics of Nigeria.

Four years ago, ahead of the 2015 general elections, several politicians and political parties ganged up to defeat the then governing party, PDP, under the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan. It was a potpourri of unlikely political allies, united by a common, but unprincipled, goal of seizing power from the incumbent. Thus, by a strange political alchemy, the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged from the merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), led by Bola Tinubu; the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); led by Muhammadu Buhari; the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) of John Odigie-Oyegun; a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by Rochas Okorocha, and a break-away faction of the PDP, known as nPDP, consisting of five governors, three former chairmen, several legislators and prominent former PDP politicians across the country, including Bukola Saraki and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, not to mention Obasanjo, who did not hide his support for the new party.

Well, with enormous electoral firepower, the APC pulled off a great feat, unprecedented in Nigeria: it defeated the incumbent president. “Hurray! Nigeria’s democracy is now working”, most Nigerians exulted. But, as President Obama said recently at the centenary anniversary of Nelson Mandela, democracy is not just about elections, it is also about the strength and stability of democratic institutions. Unfortunately, barely two months after gaining power, the APC was in disarray. Its leadership was paralysed by oligarchic rivalries, and party discipline was thrown to wind in the National Assembly and across the country.

Of course, when a governing party becomes dysfunctional, the government it leads would malfunction. The Buhari government has failed, in part because of the president’s weak leadership but also because of APC’s deep crisis. The executive-legislature gridlock, which has hampered government effectiveness, is linked to the party’s crisis. Furthermore, political dynamics in the party’s fragmented power bases, not to mention the overbearing influence of the shadowy cabals around the president, have prevented Buhari from reshuffling his largely mediocre and lacklustre cabinet. Now, the APC itself has splintered, with the emergence of the so-called Reformed APC (rAPC).

Given all the above, you will understand why I scoffed at the front-page story in a recent edition of BusinessDay, captioned: “Battle for 2019 set as PDP merges with 39 parties”. The new “party” would be known as “Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP)” and would present just one presidential candidate to dislodge Buhari from Aso Rock. But who are cupped in CUPP? Well, they include the PDP; the rAPC, formerly known as nPDP; the Social Democratic Party (SDP), previously purist, but recently infiltrated by disgruntled PDP members; the National Conscience Party, the party formed by the late civil rights activist, GaniFawehinmi (he will be rolling is his grave!); the Labour Party, now fronted by former Ondo State governor, Olusegun Mimiko, who recently defected from the PDP; and, wait for it, Obasanjo’s African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Lord Palmerston would be turning in his grave at the way Nigerian politicians have bastardised his “no permanent friends or enemies, but permanent interests” dictum. Surely, the only “permanent interests” galvanising these previous political foes are shared animus towards Buhari and the determination to seize power from him. Atiku, who is corralling the coalition, and perhaps bankrolling it, is doing so in pursuit of his long-standing presidential ambition. As for Obasanjo, he is motivated by a personal goal to deny Buhari a second term even if it means supporting Atiku, who he’s been telling Nigerians for years “is corrupt”. For Obasanjo, it’s “Anyone but Buhari”, just as he said in 2015: “Anyone but Jonathan”! Indeed, Obasanjo recently met with Afenifere leaders, his long-standing political enemies, to solicit their support in “rescuing” Nigeria by denying Buhari a second term. Never mind that he is viscerally opposed to political restructuring, an article of faith for Afenifere!

Of course, Obasanjo is not the only one playing this “no permanent enemies, but permanent interests” game. Atiku, a serial defector, has long been doing it. As has the APC! In 2014, Tinubu led leaders of the newly formed APC to Obasanjo in Ota. “We are resolved and determined to rescue Nigeria”, he told Obasanjo, adding: “We want you to lead the mission, we want you as navigator”. But, recently, the same Tinubu mocked Obasanjo for saying Buhari shouldn’t seek a second term. Hear him: “I remember one Uncle backdoor, who has been General himself and who has been elected President. I call him election rigger!”. Hilarious! Obasanjo was once Tinubu’s political enemy, then he became his political friend, and now he is his political enemy again! Depending on the next political interests, Obasanjo might be Tinubu’s political friend and ally again, and vice versa. Lord Palmerston, where are you?!

But how can Nigeria’s party system and democracy develop with this chameleonic, end-justifies-means behaviour? I mean, where is the difference between the coalition against Jonathan in 2015 and the new coalition against Buhari? None. It’s the same politicians again. The rAPC is the nPDP of old. Obasanjo has simply switched alliance – again! Atiku, of course, is a recurring feature in all this. It’s a revolving door politics!

To be clear, I am not against coalitions if they are driven by noble goals rather than selfish ambitions. For instance, I wrote recently that the next general elections must be about restructuring Nigeria and that there must be a Government of National Unity after the elections to deliver it. That requires cross-party collaboration. But the CUPP is not about restructuring. The Coalition promised in its MOU to “present an executive bill on restructuring and devolution of powers to the National Assembly”. That’s disingenuous. Which restructuring plan would they implement, the one based on the report of the Jonathan government’s National Conference or the APC’s restructuring report? There is no consensus yet. That’s why the restructuring and political settlement that Nigeria needs cannot be done by one party simply submitting an executive bill to the National Assembly. It requires elite consensus, it requires a Government of National Unity.

If the Coalition is committed to a comprehensive restructuring agenda and to a unity government to deliver it, then it would be in the national interest. Otherwise, it’s another self-interested ganging up for power; in which case, I simply say: Beware!