PDP can’t regain power without genuine mea culpa and raison d’etre
Since the Supreme Court confirmed the Ahmed Shinkafi’s faction of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as the authentic PDP in July, there has been a definite spring in the step of the party. Indeed, since then, the party has been making a brave attempt to rise like some phoenix from the ashes. In 2015, when the PDP was going through the cycle of grief after losing the presidential election, I urged the party to get over its post-defeat trauma. “For the vibrancy of Nigeria’s democracy”, I wrote in this column, “PDP must come to terms with its loss, rebuild and rise again”. But, alas, for over two years since that defeat, the party was riven and paralysed by blame-game, litigations and protracted crises.
My interest in PDP’s revival is not partisan. I am not a politician, and have no party affiliation or sympathies. But I am, as Aristotle described it, a “political animal”, passionate about democracy and governance. I am interested in political parties because I believe democracy can’t thrive without competitive party politics. In 2015, for the first time in Nigeria’s political history, an opposition candidate unseated an incumbent president in a free and fair election; that marked a watershed in the annals of electoral democracy in Nigeria. Certainly, that competitive democratic process must be nurtured and entrenched in this country.
As Paul Johnson points out in his book “Enemies of Society”, the true essence of democracy is “the ability to remove a government without violence, to punish political failure or misjudgement by votes alone”. Politics is a demand and response process: politicians anticipate the demands of the people and respond by offering a manifesto of promises in an election; once a party has been elected to office, its performance is then judged by the electorate, who respond to that performance through the ballot box at the next elections. But this process of demand and response can only work where there are strong and competitive political parties. Without that, what you get is an arrogant governing party that starts boasting, as the PDP infamously did, that it would rule for 60 years!
Lest we forget, arrogance and hubris defined the PDP for much of its 16 years in power. But, unfortunately, the APC too has caught the bug. The party is, indeed, vulnerable as an electoral force at the next elections. For a start, it is not clear whether President Buhari would seek re-election in 2019. If he doesn’t, the centre may not hold for the APC, because Buhari is the only person capable of unifying the party, a potpourri of strange political bedfellows. But what if Buhari decides to run again in 2019? Well, his health could be an issue, although we continue to pray for his full recovery. Yet, even without Buhari’s health conditions, the APC could still be vulnerable for its broken promises.
Leaving aside the economy, one other issue that might dominate the 2019 general elections is political restructuring, which, we are told, is an article of faith in APC, as the chairman of the party’s constitution drafting committee, Chief Segun Osoba, and its national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, confirmed in recent interviews. I have previously argued in this column that political restructuring is an albatross on the APC’s neck. How, for instance, would APC leaders in the Southwest face the electorate in 2019 without credible steps towards fulfilling the party’s manifesto promise on political restructuring, a key issue for the Southwest, the only zone in the South that supported the party in 2015?
Now, I have painted this theoretical picture of APC’s electoral vulnerability just to make the point that, on the face of it, the PDP’s comeback in the 2019 general elections is not unthinkable. Indeed, the analysis of the 2015 presidential election results, which I did in a piece titled “APC faces an uncertain future. It must unite or die” (BusinessDay, 20 July 2015), shows that the party’s electoral base is not unassailable, a situation that is not helped by its fragile coalition and the inevitable wear and tear it is experiencing as the governing party.
Interestingly, following the Supreme Court judgment, exultant PDP leaders have been talking up their chances of victory in the 2019 general elections. Former President Goodluck Jonathan declared matter-of-factly in a recent speech that “PDP will reclaim power in 2019”, and the party’s other leaders have being echoing the same sentiment. But why is the party so confident? Well, they think Nigerians are nostalgic about their “achievements” in office, and would punish the APC in 2019 for “destroying the solid foundations we laid in 16 years”. Jonathan said, for instance, that PDP’s “achievements while in power would rekindle the confidence of the electorate to vote it to power in 2019”. And the chairman of the party’s convention planning committee, Ifeanyi Okowa, Delta state governor, said: “From the way things are going in this country, Nigerians will realise the PDP is the only alternative”.
This is clearly a party that has lapsed into navel-gazing, that is talking to itself, not to Nigerians, and, if I may add, that is delusional. Surely, if the PDP thinks that it is pushing at an open door, if it thinks that there is a low-hanging fruit to be picked at the 2019 general elections, it is sorely mistaken. The truth is that PDP cannot win the next presidential election by simply waiting for the APC to fail or by hoping to take advantage of APC’s vulnerabilities. For me, there are two things PDP must do to be re-electable again. First, it must show genuine remorse for its failure in government and offer a genuine mea culpa, and second, it must redefine itself: what does it stand for? What is it raison d’etre?
Take the question of a mea culpa. Of course, the Nigerian economy did better under the PDP than under the APC. The economy grew at an average of 5-7% annually, but that was large commodity-driven; to be precise, the oil boom. But, in truth, the partial liberalisation of the economy under the PDP also spurred growth. According to the World Investment Report (2015), FDI inward stock in Nigeria rose from $8.6bn in 1990 to $86.6bn in 2014, thanks to macro-economic stability.
But economists talk about value for money (vfm), and so if the PDP’s 16 years’ rule was measured on vfm terms, was it a success? The answer must be no! Considering the huge resources at its disposal – from the sustained periods of high growth rates, the oil windfalls, the $18bn debt relief, not to mention the huge inward investments – the PDP’s achievements in its entire 16 years in power were miniscule. Even if we give the party some credit for the economy, the truth is that its 16 years in power were defined by pervasive corruption, the fallouts of which we are still witnessing, widespread poverty, deep inequality and debilitating insecurity.
Furthermore, throughout its 16 years in power, PDP delivered nothing on political reform, despite organising two national conferences. President Obasanjo took over a divided Nigeria, after the devastations of the Abacha years, but left office with Nigeria still divided, thanks to his megalomania, his disrespect for free and fair elections, and his illegal third-term attempt. Obasanjo also took over a weak Nigeria; well, he left office with Nigeria still weak by foisting weak leaders on the country. Yet, Obasanjo is saying he won’t support political restructuring as if Nigeria needs his approval to move forward!
So, instead of the indulgent self-congratulation, PDP must admit it was remiss for much of its 16 years’ in power and make a sincere mea culpa. Then, it must define what it now stands for. What are its beliefs and values? It needs to present an alternative vision to the APC’s before it can be seen as a credible alternative to the party in 2019. Truth is, without these two things – a genuine mea culpa and a clear raison d’etre – the PDP lacks any credibility to justify a comeback in 2019!
Olu Fasan