PDP is in denial: The prodigals and rebranding won’t save it

When the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) lost the 2015 presidential election, after 16 years in power, it suffered a post-defeat trauma, and went throughwhat psychologists call the “cycle of grief”. This cycle consists of five stages, namely: shock, denial, anger, despair and acceptance. Every individual or institution that suffers a major loss or setback goes through, in some form, the cycle of grief. My argument is that PDP has not completed this grieving process, and that until it does it can’t fully recover and regain power.

The loss of power after 16 years in government was indeed earth-shattering for the PDP. This was a party that arrogantly vowed to rule Nigeria for 60 years! Thus, after its defeat, the PDP was, naturally, in shock. There was complete numbness among its members across the country. But the shock soon morphed into denial, a refusal to accept the reality of the situation. For weeks, PDP leaders, stuck by the “un-realness” of the defeat, were still contemplating challenging, and hopefully overturning, it in court.

However, as the reality of the loss and its irreversibility sank in, denial turned into anger, characterised by the blame game. Somebody or something must be blamed, and for the PDP it was blame galore. The then chairman of the party, Adamu Mu’azu and the then chairman of the Board of Trustees, Tony Anenih, were both blamed for the loss and forced to resign. So was the then chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Godswill Akpabio, who recently defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

But the anger and blame-game soon turned into despair. PDP lost the will to live and was, as an organisation, in a complete meltdown, sapped of confidence, energy and hope. What’s more, it descended into a protracted crisis as two factions, led, respectively, by Ahmed Shinkafi and Ali Modu Sheriff, fought in and out of court for control of the party. It was debilitating. The PDP failed to move to the final stage of the cycle of grief: acceptance, which involves coming to terms with a loss, learning from it and rebuilding a newlife.

For any political party that has suffered electoral defeat and wants to regain power, the acceptance or closure stage must be followed by intense debates about its future direction: what it stands or should stand for; what its values, vision and policies are or should be. Truth is, the PDP has not gone through this process. It’s still in denial about why it lost power and what it must do to regain it.

Notwithstanding, some recent developments have put a spring in the party’s feet, giving it confidence, albeit premature, about winning next year’s presidential election. The first was the Supreme Court’s confirmation of the Ahmed Shinkafi’s faction as the authentic PDP. This ended the 14-month leadership crisis that paralysed the party, and, crucially, helped unite the party, a key condition for electoral victory, as divided parties hardly win elections. The second development was the coalition that PDP formed with 38 other parties, named Coalition of United Parties (CUPP), which, according to its MoU, would present one candidate, presumably from PDP, to face President Buhari in next year’s election. The last development was the return to the PDP of several former leaders, who joined the APC before the 2015 elections. The prodigals include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, three state APC governors, namely, of Sokoto, Bauchi and Kwara, several commissioners and state legislators, and, of course, over 50 federal legislators, both from the Senate and House of Representatives, including, notably, the Senate President, Bukola Saraki

These developments – party unity, electoral coalition and returned prodigals – would, indeed, give any party a shot in the arm, and boost its confidence six months into a general election. But can they give the PDP victory in next year’s general elections? Let’s be clear,PDP is trying to achieve a rare feat in the history of electoral democracy. For a party to lose power after 16 years in government and then regain it just four years later is almost unimaginable. But can the PDP pull off a remarkable comeback next year?

Well, as I once wrote in this column, “PDP still has a mountain to climb to repair its damaged credibility and become electable again”. Yet, I also argued that “APC’s electoral positionis not so unassailable as to make PDP’s victory in 2019 unthinkable”, especially if you consider that Buhari beat Jonathan by only 2.5m votes. That’s not a significant margin and could be overturned, depending on what happens in the South-East, South-South and South-West in 2019 and, indeed, in the non-core North. I further argued that APC could be defeated if it underperformed and if its frail coalition, particularly the North and South-West alliance that gave it victory, unravelled.

Now, the above analysis remains valid, in my view, but there is one missing element: the PDP itself. As things are, the PDP seems to think it can regain power by relying on some extraneous factors, such as the CUPP, which is a coalition of strange political bedfellows, the return of its prodigals and rebranding, i.e., by changing its name, as recently reported by some newspapers. But more significantly PDP thinks it can win by exploiting President Buhari’s undoubtedly monumental underperformance and failure. For instance, one PDP leader, Ifeanyi OKowa, Delta state governor, once said: “From the way things are going in this country, Nigerians will realise the PDP is the only alternative”. Really? That seems remarkably complacent and hubristic.

It’s worth nothing that President Trump is a historically unpopular president. Yet his party, the Republicans, has been winning by-elections. Similarly, despite Buhari’s unpopularity, APC has won governorship elections in Edo, Ondo and Ekiti states, and has won several by-elections. In a recent poll, BusinessDay asked: “With the defection of over 50 senators and lawmakers from APC, do you think PDP will seize power in 2019?” 74% of the respondents said “No”. So, what’s happening? Why is PDP not winning despite Buhari’s and APC’s underperformance and seeming unpopularity? The truth is that PDP is doing nothing to earn the people’s trust but relying on Buhari’s failure to propel it to victory.

Let’s face it, it would be a monumental mistake for the PDP to think that it can regain power simply by cashing in on Buhari’s failure without making itself a credible alternative. As the American journalist Franklin Adams famously said, “Elections are won by men and women chiefly because most people vote against somebody rather than for somebody”. What does that mean in the Nigerian electoral context? Well, it means that despite Buhari’s and APC’s unpopularity, if Nigerians don’t see PDP as a credible alternative they will vote subconsciously against PDP rather than for Buhari; in other words, Buhari would win by default!

So, what must PDP do to improve its chances of regaining power next year? Well, it must do three things. First, it must show genuine remorse for its failure in government and offer a genuine apology to Nigerians. Second, it must redefine itself: what does it stand for and what is its vision for Nigeria. It must offer voters a detailed and practical agenda of how it would tackle Nigeria’s multifaceted challenges. And third, it must present a credible presidential candidate.

In fairness, the PDP chairman, Uche Secondus, recently apologised to Nigerians, admitting the party made “several mistakes”. Although the apology was too general to be meaningful, it was a good starting point. The party must show genuine remorse to draw a line under the past. But apology is not enough. It must offer something like a “Contract with Nigeria” and set out in specific detail how it would address Nigeria’s economic, political, social and institutional challenges, including restructuring. Finally, it needs a strong and credible candidate. Truth is, Atiku doesn’t sound credible by saying he would serve only one term. Why? Does he envisage he would be too old, too ill or too incompetent to seek a constitutionally permissible second term? And, let’s face it, Saraki doesn’t have the national reach to win for PDP. He can’t beat Buhari in the North and can’t win in the South-West. So, what’s the point?

PDP certainly needs more that its prodigals and rebranding to regain power next year. It needs a credible agenda; it needs a credible candidate. Even so, it’s still a tall order!