The federal government’s scorecard for 2016
The end of the current administration’s first full fiscal year is just about 37 days away, and barring any monumental shift, the year will end along the same course it has charted over the preceding 329 days. Many people voted with the expectation of change on many fronts, in line with the campaign slogan of the party wielding control at the centre, not a few are, however, already feeling shortchanged by the turn of events.
Is it too early to judge the ‘new’ administration? The administration has already spent about 37.5% of its 4-year term, and considering the fact that the last year of most administrations in Nigeria is typically consumed by electioneering, then we may have effectively spent half of the time allotted to governance. Given the performance so far, is there cause for renewed hope? Real change takes time, but are we laying the foundation for a lasting institutional structure? Evaluating a number of issues may provide telling answers on where we are and what we might expect over the next 30 months. Given space constraint, we will limit the issues to be addressed to 3 broad areas- statement of intent, the economy and security.
What I have termed the statement of intent is the legacy of doing the right things, the right way. Thus, my first expectation of this administration was to allow common sense prevail and start doing things differently. How can we gain traction in the war against corruption, particularly, in public service? Transfer the burden of proof to the accused. This has been successfully employed in Singapore’s war on drug trafficking. It is also alarming that the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) earns less than N500,000 a month, yet a governor that has governed a State for only 8 years is entitled to a mansion of N200mn as part of retirement package. How do we develop our health sector? Stop funding medical tourism of government officials, including the President. How do we grow domestic production of goods and services? Stop subsidising imports. On many of these issues, status quo remains, yet we expect a different outcome.
How about the economy. Has anything changed? The answer is an emphatic yes, but unfortunately, it’s for the worse. On the activity side, the recently released GDP figure for the third quarter of 2016 shows the aggregate economy contracted by 2.24%, compared to 2.06% and 0.36% contraction in the second and first quarters of 2016 respectively. Although, the contraction in the third quarter is steeper when compared to the two preceding quarters, the speed of contraction has slowed (1.7 percentage point between Q2 and Q1, and 0.18 percentage point between Q3 and Q2), which suggests we may be about to turn a corner. The cost segment is not any better, with inflation in October 2016 coming in at 18.3%, bringing the year-to-date (ytd) average to 15.05%, the highest since the 2009 base year was introduced. Exchange rate has also taken flight, with the Naira now exchanging for 460 to a Dollar at the parallel market, a depreciation of about 73.6% ytd.
Are the challenges in the economy attributable to a re-engineering process which will lead to a better, more sustainable growth in the future? Unfortunately, not. Ours is a case of doing the same thing in a worse way and expecting better results. My expectation was for the current administration to make its intent known in the first three months after inauguration. I thought revenue challenges meant government would become more innovative in funding its obligations. I was hoping to see the government develop a workable framework for converting some of its obligations to assets that will yield revenue down the line. But what we still have is a government bugged down by mundane things while failing to see the bigger picture.
Has the government fared any better in protecting the lives and property of the average Nigerian than it has in running the economy? The government inherited homegrown terrorism that was allowed to fester in the North-East area of Nigeria. To the administration’s credit, the great conflagration of terrorism that was threatening to consume everything in its wake has now been reduced to embers of occasional spark. We are, however, now witnessing a three-pronged threat of the herdsmen scourge, the Niger-Delta agitators, and the Biafra secessionists. If not quickly and rightly addressed, each of the threats has the potential to be as destructive as the terrorism menace that ravaged the North-East. Cases of both high and low profile kidnappings also continue unabated, exacerbated by tough economic conditions.
On the scale of the above enumerated issues, this is a year to forget for the incumbent administration. My hope is that there are some underground work ongoing that we are yet to feel the impact.
Olugbenga A. Olufeagba