Britain after Brexit

British voters stunned the rest of Europe and indeed the world on June 23, 2016 when they voted by a margin of 52 to 48 percent to leave the European Union upsetting not just their mostly-younger compatriots (who knew no other life except within Europe) who wished to stay with Brussels, but also the rest of the EU establishment and Barack Obama and others in the liberal West who had come to take the European project as given.

Unlike many who follow what seems like the politically-correct conventional wisdom of opposing “BREXIT” since Obama, Hillary Clinton, David Cameron and everyone else appeared to think it was a bad thing plus the reverse-totalitarians who characterized anyone who supported BREXIT as a bigot who was afflicted with hate, I was by-and-large neutral on the subject. In my view deciding to leave the EU or remaining therein were both legitimate choices voters in the United Kingdom could exercise. I am not sympathetic to the emerging left-wing authoritarianism that regards anything contrary to their liberal platforms as illegitimate and wrong, a trend that contradicts the very basis of social democratic civilization. As far as I was concerned, the decision was squarely one United Kingdom voters were exclusively tasked to take and it was wrong for people like Obama, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and other world leaders and global institutions like the IMF to seek to browbeat voters into taking a particular course of action.

In spite of my neutrality, I imagined that just like the failed Scottish referendum, the BREXIT vote might fail and David Cameron would emerge from it all, a star who had strengthened the United Kingdom through two risky referendum gambits. In the event, voters probably annoyed at the scare mongering and barely disguised intimidation by global powers decided to exercise their sovereign right to rule their own destinies, even if they understood that course of action would entail some economic risks. I view the reaction by CNN and parts of the global media in “re-litigating” a campaign that went on for four months over an issue that has been contentious for probably four decades as a betrayal of democratic principles. For the losers in the referendum to go on as if they have a moral right to question the choice of the majority fundamentally threatens the democratic space in Britain and the West. It is strange and undemocratic that within hours of the result, a case was being made for a second referendum-the results showed that 17.4million people voted to exit the EU while 16.1million voters to stay. The question is can any petition even if signed by 10 million persons override the majority votes of 17.4million people? Would those canvassing a second referendum adopt the same position in relation to elections-would they call for new elections everytime their side lost?

It also seems the inclination of the EU leaders is to “punish” Britain and British voters for their audacity and imprudence in deciding to leave the union. In effect the EU is being positioned as a club of nations you may join freely but dare not leave, which may be the definition of a secret cult!

But there are genuine complications about the BREXIT vote casting aside the vicious response of CNN, EU leaders and other liberal establishment agents, including “markets” and rating agencies, the most important being Scotland. Scotland we may recall voted very recently to stay in the United Kingdom. In the way, British voters were threatened to stay in Europe on pain of economic ruin, Scottish voters were threatened with dire consequences if they dared leave the UK and a majority chose to stay. It was clear that one major factor that weighed on the Scottish vote was the desire to stay in the EU, which they were warned would be at risk if they left Great Britain. There is clearly some justice in Scotland arguing as Nicola Sturgeon has done that there has been a material change in the circumstances that saw their people opting to stay in the UK. The point in effect is that the logic of UK voters (actually English and Welsh voters since Scotland and Northern Ireland actually voted remain) opting out of Europe may yet see Scotland also opting out of Great Britain. The logic of self-determination is one I would always sympathize with! Beyond the issues around Scotland, there is of course substantial short-term uncertainty around Britain’s economic fortunes for which its citizens must pay a cost!

There is a lot for Nigeria to learn about all these-no country or union can hope to hold any people in a forced union forever. In the end the only sustainable way of building a nation is by the free will of its people and not through unrelenting attempts to create anunsustainable hegemony. In terms of the effects of BREXIT on Nigeria, I do not think that they are necessarily harmful. For one our Nigerian diaspora may actually fare better in the UK labour market if competition from Eastern Europe subsides a little bit through BREXIT. On the other hand though, if the anti-Europe vote is really in substance a vote against all immigrants, then perhaps our turn will come too? However Nigerians residing in the UK are usually citizens by birth, those who were voluntarily admitted through educational study or high skills immigrants programmes or those overstaying on short term visas. In terms of Nigerian trade or investment with Britain, I do not necessarily see a negative consequence; instead there is some potential for opportunity as British businesses turn again to Africa and the Commonwealth to replace some European trade that may be lost at the margins. There is a point also for ECOWAS, African Union and other economic blocs-the real need is for a common market and economic integration, not necessarily a political or federal state in the mold of EU’s failed or failing “ever closer union”.

In the end, I’m sure the United Kingdom or England and Wales will be just fine. The English are a strong, resourceful and resilient people. In or out of Europe, they will be a great, civilized, powerful nation. England was not in Europe when it conquered much of the world in Africa, Asia, Middle East and the Americas. Britain was not in Europe when Winston Churchill and others defeated Hitlerduring the Second World War. And the UK may not be the last nation to leave the EU.

Opeyemi Agbaje