Buhari’s credibility and emerging strategies

At the point this columnist realized I was too exhausted to write, the trending topic was Mainagate-the revelation that high officers of the Buhari administration with the strongly probable concurrence of President Buhari himself had plotted to return Abdulrasheed Maina, a fugitive from justice for acts of high-level corruption and grand theft, into the civil service, further eroding the credibility of the Buhari presidency on the issue of corruption!
The facts of the matter are now well known-Maina a civil servant had been dismissed under the previous administration for scandalous acts of corruption. He had been summoned to redress prior problems in pensions administration but his cure had turned out to be worse than the disease; he evidently more corrupt than the system he was supposed to reform. At some point, too much loot got into his head and he considered himself above the law, including the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. When the Senate took offence at his arrogance and insubordination, ex-President Jonathan dismissed him and he fled into exile in Dubai to escape arrest and prosecution. It is now clear in spite of their denials that a duo of senior Buhari administration officials-Attorney General Abubakar Malami and Interior Minister General Abdulrahman Dambazau, with support from the leadership of the Federal Civil Service Commission deployed various legal and administrative disguises, to recall the notorious fugitive back into federal service; and rewarded him with a (double) promotion and payment of all his back salaries!
Nigerians were unanimously outraged by the insult on our collective intelligence and then the manoeuvres to obscure responsibility commenced. The main stratagem was to pin responsibility on a person who was either at best tangential to the plot to recall Maina or as it turned out opposed the plan, and actually cautioned against it directly in person to no other person than Buhari himself! Head of Civil Service, Winifred Oyo-Ita who the plotters designed for the role of scape-goat being the only “outsider” in the mix (woman, Southerner, Christian, non-Hausa Fulani) fiercely and vigorously rejected this attempt and in the process confirmed through a leaked memo in response to a query from the president’s chief of staff, that the president was indeed aware of the plan to bring Maina back and she in fact warned of the likely damage to the regime’s anti-corruption rhetoric from such an action. The “Nollywood” video of Oyo-Ita “quarrelling” with Chief of Staff Abba Kyari became a hit on all social media platforms, and aborted the attempt to cast her as scapegoat! Maina’s family members also confirmed that their “son” was invited home by the Buhari government. Meanwhile the gentleman has simply disappeared with some sources suggesting he was escorted out of Nigeria by state security officers!
There have been prior and subsequent scandals-NNPCgate sparked by minister-of-state for petroleum, Ibe Kachikwu was just dying down; another episode over military procurement involving minister of defence Dan-Ali has since emerged; and probably the greatest theft of state resources in the nation’s history-preferential allocation of scarce foreign currency in millions of dollars, at discounts averaging N200/$ over a 15 month period; which have together convinced rational Nigerians that the clique around Buhari and probably himself, have no real aversion to corruption, except as a strategy for discrediting the opposition!
Buhari has simply shrugged off the near complete erosion of his credibility over corruption and moved on to more important matters-strategising for re-election in 2019! A week or in this case three months is a very long time in politics! As recently as August, most people had virtually written off Buhari as a prospective candidate in 2019 on account of apparent health challenges and long medical vacation in London with most calculations evolving towards post-Buhari scenarios. Buhari has subsequently returned; appears to have made a remarkable “recovery” and now seeks to occupy Nigeria’s presidency for the next six years!
Buhari’s 2019 strategizing seems for now to rest on four Rs-Reconciliation with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Rapprochement with the South-East, and possibly the South-South; Rewarding and re-integrating disgruntled party members with appointments through expansion of the federal cabinet and appointments into boards and parastatals; and Retribution for those such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar with the audacity to show interest in contesting in 2019!
Tinubu has appeared receptive to Buhari’s overtures-seen at regime events in Abuja, throwing jabs at former president Jonathan and acting the role of “national leader” of the ruling APC! What observers wonder is how Tinubu could trust Buhari. If an ally “used and dumped” you after his election for a first term only to return to ask for your support when election for a second term became imminent; how could you be certain he wouldn’t do worse to you after getting a final term, when he would no longer require your services? Meanwhile Tinubu is pursuing his own reconciliation-in his South-West Yoruba base with the Afenifere!!!
The South-East pivot saw Buhari in Awka, in Igbo traditional attire receiving traditional titles and supporting the APC candidate in the recent Anambra elections. Coming soon after his verbal attacks on the region’s leadership and a military operation to pacify restive “Biafra” agitators, it was an audacious strategy. In the event his efforts did not (yet) bear tangible fruit as APGA candidate Willie Obiano was easily re-elected (though we may detect evidence of an APC-APGA tactical alliance in the reactions to the poll result), Buhari’s promises to expand the cabinet is yet to be fulfilled.
So far, Buhari’s 2019 efforts suffer from a deficit of credibility, but then one year is an eternity in politics!

Opeyemi Agbaje