Implications of President Buhari’s absence

President Muhammadu Buhari has by Wednesday March 1, 2017 been away from the country for 40 days, since January 19. His absence has, as may be expected, led to a lot of speculation concerning his health and political implications thereof.

The point that must be made, in favour of President Buhari, is that he spared us the national agony we experienced the last time (under late President Umaru Yar’adua), a president who was away from the country on medical ground. Buhari must be commended for scrupulously observing the constitutional provisions in section 145 that require him to inform the National Assembly of such an absence, and designating his deputy, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo as Acting President in his absence. Particularly notable in this regard is that the President has observed this constitutionally mandated procedure on all previous occasions on which he has been away from his desk. Of course as a democrat who believes that elected political leaders owe their constituents a duty of transparency and accountability, I would have preferred that Buhari go the additional step of disclosing to Nigerians the truth about his condition, the nature of his ailment and provides authoritative, factual updates on developments rather than the amateurish manner some of his aides have handled the matter. Nevertheless we should appreciate that these are not constitutionally-mandated requirements and we must acknowledge and appreciate his adherence to the constitution, despite I am certain, a political context in which it is likely some around him may even have opposed the much he did!

I may note that while Buhari has done what the constitution requires, no one would be surprised that there will be a lot of politics around his absence. Many senior politicians have been reported or pictured going on the now compulsory “pilgrimage” to London to see the ailing leader, including APC National Leader Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande former APC Chairman; Buhari ally Senator Ibikunle Amosun who is governor of Ogun State; Senate President Bukola Saraki and House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara; Inspector-General of Police, Ibrahim Kpotum Idris and others. While such visits are probably understandable, I would counsel that we may not encourage serving political office holders on such further trips as they may have the potential of undermining the spirit of President Buhari’s most worthy step of designating his deputy to act in his place. My sense is that the continuation of such visits may have the intended or unintended side-effect of undermining the Acting President. Some allegations have, for instance, been made that some persons may be visiting Buhari to confirm or re-confirm legitimate instructions given by the Acting President.

Meanwhile Acting President Yemi Osinbajo has ensured that there has been no vacuum in governance in line with the wishes of his boss. I have personally been impressed with Osinbajo’s actions in relation to the Niger-Delta, improving the environment of business, new legislation and FX policy. Osinbajo’s whirlwind visits and consultations across the Niger-Delta and parts of the South-East have raised a realistic prospect of rapprochement with the restive region, which could have significant positive economic and political benefits for the nation. It must be remembered that an important contributory factor to Nigeria’s recession in 2016 were the approximately 800,000 barrels of oil production per day in the first half of the year, and 500,000 to 600,000 in the second half, lost to sabotage of oil and gas infrastructure resulting in huge oil revenue forgone. These actions also drastically reduced electricity generation due to damage of gas pipelines and infrastructure. The Acting President has also swiftly signed 7 new laws passed by the National Assembly and (correctly in my view) declined assent to four others; and is facilitating cooperation between the parliament and executive on a 60-day action plan to improve the business environment in Nigeria and create an enabling environment for businesses. The most important policy success recorded by the Acting President is obviously the review of FX policy by the CBN which was stimulated by the National Economic Council under the leadership of the Vice/Acting President which has resulted in significant appreciation of the Naira against the US Dollar and other international currencies. Those of us who have consistently argued that flawed FX policy has worsened the exchange rate and foreign currency availability rather than helped, have been vindicated! I hope that the Acting President would be in a position to launch the National Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (NERGP) very soon so that remaining doubts about our economic policy direction may be clarified. I also hope that the regime would then rapidly and effectively execute the plan.

Many analysts and commentators have correctly commended these policy and administrative initiatives of the Acting President. Some have however proceeded to do these by drawing a contrast between the policies and actions of Buhari and those of Osinbajo as Acting President. Such commentary in my view would be wrong, and more importantly, unwise! There is only one presidency, that of Buhari. Osinbajo is acting at the behest of his boss and we would have to assume he is implementing the single agenda of the same presidency. Osinbajo has personally done nothing to encourage such foolish commentary and I would urge our compatriots to refrain from such divisive suggestions. The other divisive and dangerous statements which all Nigerians must disavow are suggestions reported in the media that some religious leaders are telling their followers in mosques in the North that Buhari’s illness is due to poisoning. This is wicked and untrue and the security agencies and traditional and political leaders in the North must quickly put an end to such deliberate incitement.

The attitude I would encourage Nigerians to take is that indicated by Buhari himself-adherence to the constitution and allowing our constitution to work. Buhari has correctly designated his deputy to act in his stead; the rest of us should similarly act in line with constitutional principles.