The uncertain presidency

The defining characteristic of the Buhari Presidency from inception and arguably earlier has been uncertainty! As President-elect, Buhari did not utilize the two-month transition window to clarify his policy intentions, set up his administration or communicate with Nigerian voters. I noted at the time that many of the pronouncements during the transition period came from the Lagos wing of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is stronger on policy and execution, but I worried that it was naïve to assume they would have as much influence on governance as they hoped.

Others, such as optimistic (as well as naïve and in many cases conflicted) economists and commentators painted a bright outlook based on “Lagos” mindsets and policy priorities, but more cautious analysis detected deliberate vagueness, dissonance and obfuscation every time we tried to elicit the incoming government’s policy positions! At the root of Buhari’s silence, equivocation and delay concerning policy and appointments in the pre and early post-inauguration period were the clash of interests, priorities and vision between the Katsina APC, otherwise known as Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Lagos APC, previously Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). The CPC faction had decided to bid its time knowing executive power would reside with them; while allowing the ACN faction deludes itself they would be the powers behind the throne. Many took manifesto positions by and large drafted in Lagos by Southern intellectuals as given, even as more thoughtful analysts knew such presumption was naïve at best, or even delusional!

Upon taking office, it took Buhari three months to appoint his core presidential staff, and seven months to pick his cabinet as he decided on a strategy of waiting and wearing out the other APC factions! Till today many important offices of state remain unoccupied and it was only in February/March 2017, a shocking 22 months after its inauguration that the government released its first comprehensive policy document-the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan. There has been very limited visible implementation of the ERGP since its announcement and launch! Meanwhile the economy went into recession, confidence in policy and the economy collapsed; investments and employment plummeted; production and trade declined; and policy has often been either in standstill or reverse. One friend, a Professor of Economics argues that what we have had in the last two years extends beyond uncertainty to volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity!

Now uncertainty has extended to the presidency itself! If there was a milestone that verbalized and demonstrated the elevated levels of ambiguity that has now afflicted the very core of the Buhari administration, the president himself, it was when no less a person than the (now suspended) Secretary to the Government of the Federation, David Babachir Lawal uttered the words, “Who is the Presidency?” in response to journalists who were informing him of his suspension by the “presidency”! Let’s reflect on that first-it was state house correspondents who informed the SGF that he had been suspended! I was in a board meeting in Lagos as the news broke and I indicated to colleagues that the words were poignant and carried more significant undertones of political risk than Nigerians have understood! “Who is the Presidency?” What was Lawal telling us in that question? He was questioning, I think, the legitimacy of the decision to suspend him? He was perhaps disputing the locus standi of whoever made that decision? He knows obviously that Muhammadu Buhari is Nigeria’s President-was he querying whether Buhari was involved or in a position to be involved in the decision to suspend him? Does he know something that the rest of us do not (yet) know? “Who is the Presidency?”

Subsequent developments in the polity may have reinforced this line of enquiry-a sudden rash of appointments have emerged from the “presidency” in recent times, mostly without input from the respective ministers and in some cases, notably PENCOM, in breach of law and procedure! President Muhammadu Buhari did not attend the Federal Executive Council meeting on Wednesday April 26 2017. He was similarly absent a week earlier and the meeting was called off a fortnight ago purportedly on the grounds that the Easter holidays disrupted preparations. This last Wednesday, Information Minister Lai Muhammed delivered uncomfortable news, which most Nigerians did not accept at face value and with an abundant pinch of salt-President Buhari was until further notice going to work from home! The common sense interpretation of this last development, given the context of President Buhari’s recent long medical vacation in the UK and his absence from public view, is that the President is too ill to go to his office located within the same Aso Villa Complex as his residence!

On Friday April 28, 2017, I was on air on CNBC Africa in Lagos along with Presidential spokesman Femi Adesina who joined us on phone. Adesina perhaps understandably but regrettably kept up the unhelpful official speak, stalling and unable to provide transparency in respect of the president’s actual state of health and his capacity to function in the office. Whatever his spokesmen and handlers want to believe, developments around Buhari’s health are now increasing political risk and heightening economic uncertainty in the country! This new uncertainty will set back hopes of economic recovery and if not handled forthrightly may snowball into a constitutional and political crisis. We shouldn’t permit that. It is time for the “Presidency” to disclose in full the nature of President Buhari’s ailment, his current condition and his ability (or otherwise) to function as president so that the country may determine whether it is necessary to trigger the constitutional provisions under section 144 relating to a president’s medical capacity.

Opeyemi Agbaje