Analysts cast doubt over 40,000MW power projections

Power sector close watchers and operators say that the Federal Government projected target of 40,000 MW of power by the year 2020 may just be a pipe dream as the hurdles limiting the growth of the sector is still very prevalent.

They argue that it is not just about projecting the megawatts; government efforts should geared towards providing an enabling environment, avoiding interference, focusing on policies and giving direction.

“I don’t think 40,000 MW is possible by 2020”, Chijioke Mama CEO/Founder of Energy Datar a lagos-based advisory firm said.

According to him, “Even if the will to do this is there, the institutional capacity is not there and that time is simply not enough to achieve it. He however said that a lot can be done to reposition the sector for more growth beyond this period.

Mama observed that generating an effective 40,000 MW also means developing an effective national transmission infrastructure, that has an equal or higher wheeling capacity. That requires an amount of money Nigeria those not have and cannot raise in such a short time.

“The only fast pathway now to growing meaningful capacity is to launch an aggressive solar power development framework; which could give you about 10,000MW by 2020 or slightly later.

“An aggressive mini grid solar expansion and off grid solar development strategy can add thousands of MW capacity in a few months, while circumventing the limiting impact of poor transmission capacity. The 2015 Renewable Energy Feed-in-Tariff (REFIT) policy can help drive this growth. In addition, possible utility scale solar power auction and tender process can also help bring more investments and fast track the development of grid solar capacity,” he said.

Wumi Iledare, director, Emerald Energy Institute, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria said that the megawatt projection is impossible in 2020 if gas is what Nigeria wants to depend on for that type of power capacity.

Iledare observed that Nigeria barely have 4,000 MW as at today, saying it is a waste of resources to depend on natural gas alone for 40,000 MW.

“You need a base fuel, nuclear or coal, hydro or a combination of the three,” Iledare said.

Operators insist that the Federal government urgently needs to put other building blocks which go with generating the megawatts such as a firm, independent and knowledgeable regulator, a default proof payment plan, firm guarantees and incentives for investors.

KELECHI EWUZIE