Nigerians witness significant improvement in power supply over Q3 2015

Power poll results released by NOI Polls Limited for the third quarter of 2015 have revealed that about 64 percent of Nigerian households experienced tremendous improvement in power supply over the third quarter (Q3) of 2015 (July –September 2015).

This value represents a huge increase by 37-points in this category of Nigerian households from Q2 2015 where only 27 percent of households saw improvement. This surge in power supply is likely connected to the recent general improvement in power generation, even as a historic increase in peak capacity generation to 4800 Megawatts was recorded within this period.

Further analysis revealed that the power sector over this period recorded steady improvement in power supply, with an all-time high experienced in September 2015 (69 percent).

Analysis of quarterly trends by geo-political zones over a 33-month period revealed that in Q3 2015, a larger proportion of Nigerian households across geo-political zones experienced significant improvement in power supply when compared to Q2 2015. The highest improvement was recorded in the North-Central region (70 percent) and lowest was recorded by the South-South region (47 percent).

While power supply has significantly improved nationwide, it is imperative that the recent increase in peak capacity generation be sustained and improved upon with consideration given to annual population growth rate and energy demand projections. Also, energy conservation technologies should be explored so as to augment energy deficits when there is a drop in power generation.

In arriving at this report, NOI Polls asked respondents monthly to describe the state of power supply to their households. This question specifically assesses the state of the Nigerian power sector from a consumer stand point. Findings revealed a tremendous improvement in power supply in Q3 2015 (July-September 2015) as confirmed by an average of 64 percent of Nigerian households.

The month of September recorded the highest improvement (69 percent) seen in Q3. This percentage represents more than two-thirds of adult population who have seen improvement and an increase by 25-points from the end of Q2 2015 (44 percent). This improvement in power supply especially in September 2015 may have been a direct effect of recent stringent regulations in the Nigerian power sector inspired by the new government, thus resulting in a historic peak capacity generation of 4800 Megawatts within this period.

A closer analysis on the state of power supply within the period in view shows that there has been a steady improvement in power supply from June 2015, while hitting an all-time high in September 2015 (69 percent) from the commencement of the NOIPolls power tracking in Q1 2013. This shows a difference of 19-points from its previous all-time high of 52 percent recorded at the end Q3 of 2014.

In the same manner, monitoring of the state of power supply to Nigerian households offers an insight to the proportion of Nigerians who have not seen any remarkable improvement in power supply over a 33 month period. To this effect, findings revealed that an average of 36 percent of Nigerians claimed they saw no improvement in power supply in Q3. Results also revealed May 2015 recorded the highest portion (83 percent) of Nigerians who saw no remarkable improvement in power supply, while September 2015 (31 percent) recorded the lowest proportion of Nigerian households who have seen no improvement in power supply over 33-months.

Quarterly average values of power supply across geo-political zones revealed an improvement across all geo-political zones at the end of Q3 2015. Findings show that the South-West region experienced the highest improvement (68 percent) average across geo-political zones, it improved from Q2 2015 to the end of Q3 2015 by 42-points, similarly the South-South zone experienced the lowest average quarterly improvement 47 percent, only increasing by 26- points.

Nationwide quarterly averages revealed that the lowest power rating (27 percent) was recorded in Q2 2015. However, the best power rating (64 percent) was experienced in Q3 2015 surging by 37-points; this simply implies that more Nigerians are beginning to see improvement in power supply. Findings also revealed that the only 36 percent of Nigerians attested to not seeing any improvement in power supply during Q3 2015, it dropped by 37-points from its previous all-time high of 73 percent recorded in Q2 2015.

A Year-on-Year trend analysis of the state of power supply in Nigeria from 2013 to 2015 revealed that the initial months (January-May) of 2015 seemed to have recorded the worst power supply; with a steady decline in the proportion of Nigerians who experienced improvement in power supply compared to 2013 and 2014 mid Q2 2015. However, the reverse was the case in the proceeding months (June- September 2015), where power supply saw steady improvements as well as the best improvements compared with 2013 and 2014.

NOI POLLS report