End of year purchases rises November’s inflation rate by 11.28%-FSDH

The current end of the year purchases increased marginally November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) popularly known as inflation to 11. 28 percent from 11.26 percent in October 2018 in Nigeria, according to a forecast report by FSDH Merchant Bank Limited.

“We expect the November 2018 inflation rate (year-on-year) to increase marginally to 11.28 percent from 11.26 percent recorded in October. The inflation rate dropped in October, following two consecutive months of increase. We expect a marginal increase as a result of end-of-year purchases,” the report stated.

The seasonal harvest that usually occurs yearly attributed to the marginal drop of October’s inflation rate. Now it seems it is expected to rise.

The report also noted that the prices of food items monitored in November moved in varying directions, leading to 0.9 percent increase in thier Food and Non-Alcoholic Index.

“This Index increased year-on-year by 13.2 percent to 292.4 points, up from 258.2 points recorded in November 2017. We also observed an increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between October and November 2018. We estimate that the increase in the Composite,” the report detailed

The NBS  is due to release the inflation rate for the month of November on Thursday, 13 December 2018.

Also, the November Food Price Index (FPI) report by the Food and Agriculture Organization published for the month of November 2018 noted that food prices in the international market further declined from the October levels and the FPI recorded the lowest figure since May 2016.

Weaker prices in vegetable oil, dairy, cereal and meat depressed the values of the Index, while the sugar prices firmed up. Increased exports supplies from the main producing regions impacted the prices of most commodities. On the other hand, sugar prices increased for the third consecutive month due to low production prospects in the major sugar producing regions.

Bunmi Bailey