Can there be a Nigerian dream?

It was 7:30 pm, and many peoples were cramped into Lagos’ popular Danfo (yellow) buses, passengers, some returning from the market, work sites, and others from their various 9 am-5 pm jobs, were anxious to get back home, clean-up, have dinner and catch some well-deserved night rest.

The journey home became tortuous. It started raining. The bus’ door remained ajar because it cannot be locked and the passengers received torrential showers they did not pay for. Some of the bus’ window glasses would not close because they needed to be replaced and seats in the bus begged for repairs with pointed metals sticking out, in search of cloths to tear.

The passengers yelled and howled complaints at the driver but he reciprocated with commensurate amount of insults, rather than apologise for his ineptitude and discomfort caused by his poorly maintained bus.

The road got muddy and bumpier for want of maintenance from the government and the bus’ bad shock absorbers worsened a journey that was already a nightmare.

Into this bus, a mother had shepherded five of her children, the eldest was a girl, Esther, 17 years old, who had just graduated from the secondary school. She carried her younger brother, Biodun, 11 years old on her thighs and this conversation ensued between them.

Esther: This morning, as I sat in front of the house, I thought about the life I want to live in the future. My house will have a big swimming pool. I will buy my first car in two years’ time and the second one will be for mummy, I will give it to her on her birthday as a gift.

Biodun: Me too, I will become a very rich businessman, own private jets and travel the whole world.

These dreams are valid but the presence of this dream raises bigger questions, one is about Nigeria’s ability to create an enabling environment, in terms social infrastructure, within which these dreams can be nurtured and brought to life. What do available data say?

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released what it called a ‘demographic statistics bulletin’ which provides some insights into Nigeria’s population, a topic that remains highly controversial.

Based on the NBS figures, which it admits, is based on its projections, the country’s population stood at 193 million as at 2016.

This represents about a 13 percent growth from the country’s population of 170 million in 2012, based on the NBS data. In between 2012 and 2016, a period of five years, a total of 23 million brand new Nigerians were born, this comes to an average population growth of 4.65 million per year.

Going by this population growth rate, the country’s population will cross the 200 million mark by 2019 and of this number; at least 30 million will be under the age of eight years.

This means that a minimum of 30 million Nigerians would have been born between 2012 and 2019, a period of seven years. For the public sector, 30 million Nigerians under the age of eight has significant implication on how Nigeria plans our early childhood education programme.

How well equipped are the early child education centres and primary schools to equip these kids for a rapidly changing world where knowledge is now the competitive edge? The current state of Nigeria’s public school system does not give much hope.

There are also significant implications for provision of healthcare. How does Nigeria ensure that these kids do not die before the age of five? Again, the state of primary healthcare in the country does not give much hope.

Nigeria continues to fail Esther and Biodun who represent the over 30 million young Nigerians captured in the NBS dataset. The have big dreams, which dangerously hang on the balance.